The overwhelming scientific consensus from USGS monitoring and fault mechanics drives the near-certain "No" odds, as no known subduction zone or fault segment is long or continuous enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 rupture. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile in 1960, which ruptured roughly 1,000 km of the Nazca-South American plate boundary; scaling to magnitude 10 would require an implausibly larger single rupture across Earth's tectonic limits, estimated by seismologists at a practical maximum of 9.5–9.7. Recent global seismicity, including 2026 events up to magnitude 7.8, shows no deviation from established patterns, and no credible model assigns meaningful probability to such an outlier before 2027. While revised magnitude calculations or unforeseen multi-fault interactions remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting geophysical evidence.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
10.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
हाँ
1% संभावना
$816,359 वॉल्यूम
$816,359 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
1% संभावना
$816,359 वॉल्यूम
$816,359 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming scientific consensus from USGS monitoring and fault mechanics drives the near-certain "No" odds, as no known subduction zone or fault segment is long or continuous enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 rupture. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile in 1960, which ruptured roughly 1,000 km of the Nazca-South American plate boundary; scaling to magnitude 10 would require an implausibly larger single rupture across Earth's tectonic limits, estimated by seismologists at a practical maximum of 9.5–9.7. Recent global seismicity, including 2026 events up to magnitude 7.8, shows no deviation from established patterns, and no credible model assigns meaningful probability to such an outlier before 2027. While revised magnitude calculations or unforeseen multi-fault interactions remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting geophysical evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$816,359समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming scientific consensus from USGS monitoring and fault mechanics drives the near-certain "No" odds, as no known subduction zone or fault segment is long or continuous enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 rupture. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile in 1960, which ruptured roughly 1,000 km of the Nazca-South American plate boundary; scaling to magnitude 10 would require an implausibly larger single rupture across Earth's tectonic limits, estimated by seismologists at a practical maximum of 9.5–9.7. Recent global seismicity, including 2026 events up to magnitude 7.8, shows no deviation from established patterns, and no credible model assigns meaningful probability to such an outlier before 2027. While revised magnitude calculations or unforeseen multi-fault interactions remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting geophysical evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$816,359समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming scientific consensus from USGS monitoring and fault mechanics drives the near-certain "No" odds, as no known subduction zone or fault segment is long or continuous enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 rupture. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake in Chile in 1960, which ruptured roughly 1,000 km of the Nazca-South American plate boundary; scaling to magnitude 10 would require an implausibly larger single rupture across Earth's tectonic limits, estimated by seismologists at a practical maximum of 9.5–9.7. Recent global seismicity, including 2026 events up to magnitude 7.8, shows no deviation from established patterns, and no credible model assigns meaningful probability to such an outlier before 2027. While revised magnitude calculations or unforeseen multi-fault interactions remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting geophysical evidence.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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