Shakhtar Donetsk’s commanding early-season form, including an 8-0-1 record and league-leading goal difference after nine matches, underpins their 83.5% implied probability as defending champions with superior squad depth and European experience. Polissya Zhytomyr sits second on 22 points through consistent results, while Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty Lviv remain in contention via recent wins but trail in consistency. Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi’s 49.8% pricing reflects trader assessment of their mid-table positioning and potential for further improvement amid a crowded field. Lower probabilities for LNZ Cherkasy, FC Kharkiv, and the rest stem from mixed form, defensive vulnerabilities, and the challenges of sustaining challenges over a full campaign against established sides.