South Africa and Guinea remain locked in a tight points race atop AFCON 2027 Group D after the latest matchday, with both sides on six points and the other two teams (Kenya and Eritrea) effectively eliminated from contention for the non-host qualification spot. South Africa’s early results include a 2-1 win over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea, producing a strong goal difference that underpins their slight market edge. Guinea responded with a 2-1 victory against Eritrea and a narrow win over Kenya, keeping their campaign alive despite one loss. Remaining fixtures, including South Africa versus Kenya and Guinea versus Eritrea, plus the return legs, introduce significant variance because results against the weaker sides and any direct clashes could swing the group lead. Traders price the two favorites near even money as the schedule and historical form offer no decisive separation yet.