Mali's recent 3-2 comeback victory over Rwanda on November 13 has solidified their position atop Group K standings with a perfect nine points from three matches, driving the elevated trader consensus around their 76.5% implied probability to finish first. The Eagles overturned two deficits in Bamako, extending an unbeaten run under their new manager while Rwanda dropped to six points after leading twice. Cape Verde's 4-2 win over Liberia the same day marked their first points but leaves them at three points, consistent with their 5% pricing. Liberia remains winless at the bottom. With two matches remaining in the home-and-away format, Mali's current form and head-to-head edge reflect the primary factors behind current market positioning for the AFCON 2027 qualifying group winner.