The incumbent Popular Party’s commanding lead in recent polling for the May 17 Andalusian regional election reflects sustained voter support for Juanma Moreno’s regional administration and its emphasis on pragmatic governance over national ideological divides. With surveys projecting the PP near or above the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority in the 109-seat parliament, traders assign overwhelming probability to a PP victory, consistent with the party’s 2022 result and the PSOE’s projected historic low under candidate María Jesús Montero. Key factors include the early dissolution called by Moreno to capitalize on favorable momentum ahead of national contests, limited volatility in voter intentions, and the absence of major last-minute disruptions. While an unusually low turnout or unforeseen alliance shifts among smaller parties could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence points to limited scope for such reversals before polling closes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPP 99.6%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$110,911 वॉल्यूम
$110,911 वॉल्यूम
17 मई, 2026
PP
100%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.6%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$110,911 वॉल्यूम
$110,911 वॉल्यूम
17 मई, 2026
PP
$30,917 वॉल्यूम
100%
PSOE-A
$41,337 वॉल्यूम
<1%
VOX
$29,121 वॉल्यूम
<1%
PA
$5,124 वॉल्यूम
<1%
AA
$4,426 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.The incumbent Popular Party’s commanding lead in recent polling for the May 17 Andalusian regional election reflects sustained voter support for Juanma Moreno’s regional administration and its emphasis on pragmatic governance over national ideological divides. With surveys projecting the PP near or above the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority in the 109-seat parliament, traders assign overwhelming probability to a PP victory, consistent with the party’s 2022 result and the PSOE’s projected historic low under candidate María Jesús Montero. Key factors include the early dissolution called by Moreno to capitalize on favorable momentum ahead of national contests, limited volatility in voter intentions, and the absence of major last-minute disruptions. While an unusually low turnout or unforeseen alliance shifts among smaller parties could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence points to limited scope for such reversals before polling closes.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$110,911समाप्ति तिथि
17 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.The incumbent Popular Party’s commanding lead in recent polling for the May 17 Andalusian regional election reflects sustained voter support for Juanma Moreno’s regional administration and its emphasis on pragmatic governance over national ideological divides. With surveys projecting the PP near or above the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority in the 109-seat parliament, traders assign overwhelming probability to a PP victory, consistent with the party’s 2022 result and the PSOE’s projected historic low under candidate María Jesús Montero. Key factors include the early dissolution called by Moreno to capitalize on favorable momentum ahead of national contests, limited volatility in voter intentions, and the absence of major last-minute disruptions. While an unusually low turnout or unforeseen alliance shifts among smaller parties could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence points to limited scope for such reversals before polling closes.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
वॉल्यूम
$110,911समाप्ति तिथि
17 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The incumbent Popular Party’s commanding lead in recent polling for the May 17 Andalusian regional election reflects sustained voter support for Juanma Moreno’s regional administration and its emphasis on pragmatic governance over national ideological divides. With surveys projecting the PP near or above the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority in the 109-seat parliament, traders assign overwhelming probability to a PP victory, consistent with the party’s 2022 result and the PSOE’s projected historic low under candidate María Jesús Montero. Key factors include the early dissolution called by Moreno to capitalize on favorable momentum ahead of national contests, limited volatility in voter intentions, and the absence of major last-minute disruptions. While an unusually low turnout or unforeseen alliance shifts among smaller parties could theoretically narrow margins, current evidence points to limited scope for such reversals before polling closes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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