Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in September 2026, including control of Mokha, Dhubab, and Perim Island, positioned the group to threaten shipping lanes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving sharp drops in daily transits and prompting many operators to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Traffic volumes fell roughly 60 percent from pre-2023 levels but have not reached zero, with no formal closure declared by maritime authorities and limited commercial vessels still crossing. Counteroffensives by Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces in early October, including claims of clearing Houthi positions near the strait and Mayun Island, have eased immediate pressure and reduced the near-term probability of effective closure reflected in current trader pricing. Ongoing clashes, missile and drone risks, and broader regional tensions continue to shape assessments of whether sustained disruption or full blockage materializes by year-end.