The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23–28% for Minotaur, Fatherland, Fjord, and Moulin reflects a deep field of returning auteurs whose prior Cannes competition entries and festival pedigrees create balanced expectations among traders. Zvyagintsev’s psychological intensity, Pawlikowski’s period precision, Mungiu’s moral inquiries, and Nemes’s formal rigor each carry historical voting weight from past jury preferences, while Dhont and the Spanish duo add fresh critical momentum from recent arthouse breakthroughs. With no dominant precursor like a prior Palme or unanimous critics’ prize yet tipping the scale, the market remains sensitive to early screening reactions, jury composition signals, and last-minute buzz that could consolidate support for one contender before the May awards.