Claudia Sheinbaum holds a strong position as Mexico’s president through her 2030 term, supported by Morena’s supermajority in both chambers of Congress and consistently high approval ratings that have ranged between 54% and 71% in recent months. Key recent developments include a successful military operation against cartel leader El Mencho in early 2026 that lifted public confidence, alongside ongoing challenges such as persistent insecurity, a stalled electoral reform bill, and mixed economic signals with low GDP growth. Traders assign low probability to her departure before the end of 2026 because constitutional term limits and party control make removal or resignation improbable absent major unforeseen events like health issues or a successful recall effort, which could only occur in 2027 or 2028 under proposed reforms.