Recent supply recoveries from Gulf producers have pushed the global oil market toward a 1.7 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4 2026, according to the IEA, with October output rising 2.3 million bpd to 105.4 million bpd despite ongoing Middle East tensions. WTI crude trades near $88 per barrel and Brent near $96, well below the 2008 all-time high above $140, as rising U.S. inventories, softer demand amid elevated fuel prices, and higher OPEC+ volumes weigh on prices. Geopolitical risks from shipping attacks and Iran-related disruptions provide some support, but the balance of fundamentals points to continued downward pressure unless major supply outages materialize. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming OPEC+ meetings, EIA inventory data, and any shifts in U.S. policy toward the region.