Geopolitical supply shocks from the 2026 Iran conflict and related attacks on Gulf shipping and infrastructure represent the dominant driver of recent crude oil price movements. WTI futures have traded in the low-to-mid $90s per barrel in late September 2026 after earlier spikes above $100, while Brent has shown greater volatility with settlements near $115 amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. These levels remain well below the 2008 nominal all-time highs near $147, reflecting partial offsets from reduced global demand due to elevated fuel prices and refinery disruptions. Key variables for traders include potential conflict resolution timelines, OPEC+ production adjustments, U.S. shale output growth, and inventory draws, all of which influence the narrow path toward retesting historical peaks.