The Cuban regime's entrenched institutional controls, centralized Communist Party structure, and extensive security apparatus have sustained continuity under President Miguel Díaz-Canel despite severe economic pressures, energy shortages, and intensified U.S. sanctions following the 2026 ouster of Venezuela's Maduro. Traders assign 98.3% probability to no regime fall this year, reflecting the absence of organized nationwide opposition, limited protest momentum beyond localized incidents, and institutional mechanisms designed to ensure succession without systemic change. Recent parliamentary sessions and official addresses have emphasized resilience and incremental economic reforms amid ongoing diplomatic isolation. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include fractures within the ruling elite, major health developments affecting key figures, or escalated external actions that trigger unforeseen instability before year-end.