Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government in Ontario’s February 2025 election and used the January 2026 PC convention to signal his intent to seek a fourth term, reinforcing his position as party leader. With no credible internal challengers emerging and the next provincial election not due until 2029, the caucus has shown limited appetite for an early leadership contest despite recent polling showing his personal approval rating near historic lows around 24 percent amid controversies over government spending. Traders view these factors—combined with the absence of scheduled events such as a leadership review or convention that could force change before year-end—as the primary reasons the market prices the probability of Ford remaining leader past December 31, 2026, at 87 percent.