The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola event on record with over 6,000 confirmed cases and nearly 3,000 deaths as of late August 2026, drives the 96.2% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows transmission largely confined to eastern DRC provinces, with Uganda's smaller cluster fully contained and declared over by July. Epidemiological analyses confirm low intercontinental exportation risk—only isolated traveler-linked cases outside Africa historically—and no evidence of sustained global chains. Response gaps in contact tracing persist amid insecurity, yet model projections indicate containment remains feasible with improved isolation rates. A realistic shift could occur if cross-border spread accelerates into multiple new countries with weak surveillance, though current data show no such trajectory.