The United States and Türkiye sit nearly even in trader consensus for topping Group D, driven by the co-host's home-soil advantage and recent friendlies offset by Türkiye's stronger recent results. The Americans defeated both Paraguay and Australia 2-1 in 2025 warm-ups yet suffered heavy March losses to Belgium and Portugal that exposed defensive vulnerabilities ahead of Mauricio Pochettino's final squad selection. Türkiye, meanwhile, posted six wins in its last eight friendlies while holding a higher current ranking than Paraguay or Australia. With all four sides entering the June group stage without major injuries or withdrawals, the narrow gap between the top two contenders underscores the even matchup and the possibility that any single result or set-piece edge could shift the implied probability for first place.