Trader consensus favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 57%, driven by deepening fractures exposed after recent municipal elections, including Socialist Party Assembly leader Boris Vallaud's resignation on May 9 amid disputes with party head Olivier Faure over participation. The initiative, excluding La France Insoumise and Place Publique, lacks unanimous New Popular Front support, with the French Communist Party planning an independent run pending a July decision. Marine Tondelier holds a 28.5% implied probability as frontrunner if held, bolstered by her 86% Ecologists designation in December 2025; François Ruffin trails at 8% post his confirmation, while others lag amid coalition negotiation stalls ahead of the October 11 vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारद्द 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 8%
बेंजामिन लुकास-लुंडी 3.7%
$50,411 वॉल्यूम
$50,411 वॉल्यूम
11 अक्टू, 2026
रद्द
57%
Marine Tondelier
29%
François Ruffin
8%
बेंजामिन लुकास-लुंडी
4%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
रद्द 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 8%
बेंजामिन लुकास-लुंडी 3.7%
$50,411 वॉल्यूम
$50,411 वॉल्यूम
11 अक्टू, 2026
रद्द
$7,706 वॉल्यूम
57%
Marine Tondelier
$26,463 वॉल्यूम
29%
François Ruffin
$10,938 वॉल्यूम
8%
बेंजामिन लुकास-लुंडी
$67 वॉल्यूम
4%
Lydie Massard
$1,410 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Clémentine Autain
$3,827 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 57%, driven by deepening fractures exposed after recent municipal elections, including Socialist Party Assembly leader Boris Vallaud's resignation on May 9 amid disputes with party head Olivier Faure over participation. The initiative, excluding La France Insoumise and Place Publique, lacks unanimous New Popular Front support, with the French Communist Party planning an independent run pending a July decision. Marine Tondelier holds a 28.5% implied probability as frontrunner if held, bolstered by her 86% Ecologists designation in December 2025; François Ruffin trails at 8% post his confirmation, while others lag amid coalition negotiation stalls ahead of the October 11 vote.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$50,411समाप्ति तिथि
11 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 57%, driven by deepening fractures exposed after recent municipal elections, including Socialist Party Assembly leader Boris Vallaud's resignation on May 9 amid disputes with party head Olivier Faure over participation. The initiative, excluding La France Insoumise and Place Publique, lacks unanimous New Popular Front support, with the French Communist Party planning an independent run pending a July decision. Marine Tondelier holds a 28.5% implied probability as frontrunner if held, bolstered by her 86% Ecologists designation in December 2025; François Ruffin trails at 8% post his confirmation, while others lag amid coalition negotiation stalls ahead of the October 11 vote.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
वॉल्यूम
$50,411समाप्ति तिथि
11 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 57%, driven by deepening fractures exposed after recent municipal elections, including Socialist Party Assembly leader Boris Vallaud's resignation on May 9 amid disputes with party head Olivier Faure over participation. The initiative, excluding La France Insoumise and Place Publique, lacks unanimous New Popular Front support, with the French Communist Party planning an independent run pending a July decision. Marine Tondelier holds a 28.5% implied probability as frontrunner if held, bolstered by her 86% Ecologists designation in December 2025; François Ruffin trails at 8% post his confirmation, while others lag amid coalition negotiation stalls ahead of the October 11 vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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