The French left's persistent fragmentation has driven overwhelming trader consensus that the October 11 primary will be canceled. The Socialist Party's July membership vote rejected participation in favor of its own closed process, while La France Insoumise, Place Publique, and the Communist Party declined from the outset. Recent withdrawals by Les Écologistes in late September, along with earlier exits by L'Après figures and the Breton Democratic Union candidate, have left only isolated participants such as François Ruffin and Marine Tondelier without the required cross-party backing. This sequence of institutional rejections and organizational collapse has entrenched the "canceled" outcome. A last-minute reversal by remaining organizers or an unforeseen coalition agreement could theoretically alter the result before the scheduled date, though current alignments make such shifts improbable.