France's minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces repeated no-confidence motions from both National Rally and France Unbowed lawmakers amid a hung National Assembly that has persisted since the 2024 snap vote. Budget negotiations for 2027, including efforts to curb deficits ahead of EU talks, have heightened tensions, while polls show Marine Le Pen leading the 2027 presidential race against Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a polarized runoff. President Macron retains constitutional authority to dissolve the Assembly and call legislative elections, but recent statements indicate reluctance to do so before the April-May 2027 presidential contest due to timing restrictions and risks of further fragmentation. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with attention focused on near-term parliamentary votes and any escalation in protests or fiscal standoffs that could force a dissolution.