Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models show a modest warming trend for Busan on July 15, driven by a strengthening North Pacific high that favors partly sunny intervals between scattered thunderstorms. Elevated humidity and light sea breezes typical of the East Sea coast moderate peaks, yet any earlier-than-expected clearing or reduced rainfall could push afternoon maxima toward 33–34 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those levels. Historical July averages near 29 °C provide context, while model spread on convective timing creates the observed 45–55 % probability band between the top three outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected from KMA within the next 24 hours will likely refine resolution criteria tied to the official daily maximum.