The closely matched market odds around 8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and recurving tracks toward China. Through early August, multiple systems including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall or approached the mainland, with China’s National Climate Center noting stronger-than-normal July activity. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows elevated formation rates, yet steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and late-season variability introduce substantial uncertainty over whether totals will settle near the historical average or exceed it. Traders are weighing remaining peak-season forecasts against model consensus on track density and landfall thresholds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के दौरान चीन में कितने उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात आएंगे?
2026 के दौरान चीन में कितने उष्णकटिबंधीय चक्रवात आएंगे?
8 50%
6 48%
7 45%
5 44%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2027
पाँच से कम
30%
5
44%
6
48%
7
45%
8
50%
8 से अधिक
41%
8 50%
6 48%
7 45%
5 44%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2027
पाँच से कम
$92 वॉल्यूम
30%
5
$0 वॉल्यूम
44%
6
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
7
$0 वॉल्यूम
45%
8
$0 वॉल्यूम
50%
8 से अधिक
$0 वॉल्यूम
41%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market odds around 8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and recurving tracks toward China. Through early August, multiple systems including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall or approached the mainland, with China’s National Climate Center noting stronger-than-normal July activity. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows elevated formation rates, yet steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and late-season variability introduce substantial uncertainty over whether totals will settle near the historical average or exceed it. Traders are weighing remaining peak-season forecasts against model consensus on track density and landfall thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$92समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market odds around 8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and recurving tracks toward China. Through early August, multiple systems including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall or approached the mainland, with China’s National Climate Center noting stronger-than-normal July activity. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows elevated formation rates, yet steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and late-season variability introduce substantial uncertainty over whether totals will settle near the historical average or exceed it. Traders are weighing remaining peak-season forecasts against model consensus on track density and landfall thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
वॉल्यूम
$92समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds around 8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by developing El Niño conditions that favor more frequent genesis and recurving tracks toward China. Through early August, multiple systems including Bavi, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin have already made landfall or approached the mainland, with China’s National Climate Center noting stronger-than-normal July activity. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration and JTWC shows elevated formation rates, yet steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and late-season variability introduce substantial uncertainty over whether totals will settle near the historical average or exceed it. Traders are weighing remaining peak-season forecasts against model consensus on track density and landfall thresholds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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