Trump's decision not to attend the United States' opening World Cup match against Paraguay this week has anchored trader sentiment around one or two appearances, with the 47% implied probability on exactly one game reflecting his packed presidential schedule and security demands. Close ties with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and prior statements expressing interest in multiple matches sustain the 39.5% on two and 38.5% on three or more, while the low 9% on zero underscores his established role in tournament promotion. As the expanded 48-team event unfolds across North America, upcoming catalysts like quarterfinal and semifinal matchups could shift momentum if Trump prioritizes high-profile U.S. games or the final.