President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act during immigration enforcement operations and related protests, including statements targeting unrest in Minnesota and Los Angeles earlier in 2026. Recent court rulings, including a Ninth Circuit decision finding prior National Guard deployments exceeded statutory authority, have highlighted legal constraints under the Posse Comitatus Act and related provisions. Senators have raised questions about new National Guard quick-reaction forces and their potential use around the November 3 midterms. Allies have urged consideration of the Act or broader emergency measures if election disputes arise, while Trump has given mixed signals without ruling out invocation. These factors, alongside procedural requirements and expected litigation, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of formal invocation by year-end.