The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$13,698,530 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
31 मई
7%
30 जून
13%
31 दिसंबर
34%
$13,698,530 वॉल्यूम
31 मई
$2,005,144 वॉल्यूम
7%
30 जून
$1,099,136 वॉल्यूम
13%
31 दिसंबर
$2,398,370 वॉल्यूम
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,698,530समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$13,698,530समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, which installed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader within days. Power has since shifted toward greater Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, with military figures assuming expanded roles amid ongoing conflict and the absence of public appearances by the new leader. This has raised questions about institutional stability, potential further transitions, and the durability of the theocratic structure under external pressure. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any escalation or de-escalation in hostilities could influence whether additional leadership adjustments occur before key resolution dates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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