Jack Doherty’s dominant 90.7% market-implied odds of avoiding prison time stem from the misdemeanor domestic battery charge filed after his September 4, 2026 Fort Lauderdale arrest, where the alleged victim sustained no injuries and police described only a physical dispute. Florida courts routinely resolve first-time misdemeanor battery cases with probation or diversion rather than incarceration, especially when self-defense claims surface and no serious harm is documented. His prior November 2025 drug-related felony was resolved through Miami-Dade’s pretrial diversion program without conviction, further reducing exposure. Traders see little path to state prison given these facts, historical sentencing patterns for similar influencer cases, and the absence of additional felony charges. An upset would require conviction plus an unusually harsh judicial departure from norms or the emergence of new, more serious allegations.