Japan’s government has signaled no plans for broad declassification of its UAP files in 2026, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stating on May 11 that any releases would occur only on a narrow, case-by-case basis after weighing risks to intelligence capabilities. This stance follows the Pentagon’s May 2026 release of previously classified UAP records, including sightings near Japanese airspace, which Tokyo said it is reviewing in coordination with the United States. No legislative directive, scheduled review process, or policy announcement has emerged to shift Tokyo’s longstanding preference for limiting public disclosure of defense-related data. Traders therefore see an 81 percent implied probability that no new comprehensive files will be released this year, reflecting the absence of announced changes and the priority placed on protecting sensitive assets.