**Current low river stages around 7 ft at Baton Rouge, driven by basin-wide drought, position the 4.00–4.99 ft range as the market favorite (48% implied probability).** As of late September 2026, USGS and NOAA gauges show the Mississippi at Baton Rouge near 6.9–7.0 ft with discharge around 214,000 cfs—below recent seasonal averages amid the 29th-driest January–August period and 60th-driest August on record for the greater basin. This reflects reduced inflows from upstream tributaries experiencing flash-drought conditions and below-normal precipitation through summer. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the basin from October through December, tied to a strong El Niño phase that historically boosts southern rainfall. However, the timing of these rains relative to typical autumn low-flow periods creates uncertainty; model consensus and recent hydrographs support further seasonal decline before any rebound. Traders thus assign the highest odds to a low in the mid-4 ft range, with lower probabilities for deeper drops (below 4 ft combined ~25.5%) or stabilization near current levels. Key upcoming catalysts include updated NWS river forecasts, CPC monthly outlooks, and basin precipitation monitoring that could shift these market-implied odds.