**Marine Le Pen remains a sitting Member of the National Assembly for Pas-de-Calais's 11th constituency, a seat she has held since 2017.** Recent court action on July 7, 2026, is the dominant driver of trader sentiment: a Paris appeals court upheld her conviction in the European Parliament assistants embezzlement case but shortened the effective public-office ban to 15 months already served (backdated to the March 2025 lower-court ruling). This leaves her eligible to hold or seek office, including the 2027 presidential race, while imposing one year of electronic monitoring under house arrest (part of a three-year prison term with the rest suspended) and a €100,000 fine. Le Pen immediately stated she will run for president in 2027 and pursue a further appeal to the Court of Cassation. No ruling or procedural step has triggered removal from her current National Assembly seat, and French law distinguishes between future ineligibility and expulsion of incumbents in this context. The National Rally bloc she leads in the Assembly continues without reported disruption tied to the verdict. Key variables for the market include the outcome and timing of the Cassation appeal, any separate legislative or party decisions on her mandate, and the schedule for the next legislative elections. Historical precedent shows such convictions rarely force immediate resignation of sitting deputies absent additional parliamentary action. The July 7 ruling has shifted implied probabilities toward her retaining the seat through the near term.