Austin FC enters the home fixture against the San Jose Earthquakes as the narrow market favorite at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the Verde & Black’s home advantage at Q2 Stadium and San Jose’s sharp recent decline. San Jose sits fourth in the Western Conference with 33 points but has managed just one point from its last five MLS matches amid defensive lapses that have seen it concede 14 goals in that span. Austin, 14th with 21 points, has shown flashes of attacking threat through players like Myrto Uzuni while benefiting from a healthier roster after a busy Leagues Cup schedule. The 24.5% draw probability aligns with both sides’ tendency toward shared points in Western Conference clashes, though San Jose’s road form offers realistic upset potential if its attack can exploit Austin’s league-worst goal differential.