Anthony Davis's recent February 2026 trade to the Washington Wizards from the Mavericks anchors the 95.2% implied probability against a move by the end of the 2026-27 season. The Wizards and Davis's camp have mutually deferred extension talks until after the first 20 games to assess roster fit alongside Trae Young, Alex Sarr, and other young talent, with Washington publicly signaling no immediate intent to trade the 10-time All-Star despite his large contract and injury history. Insider surveys highlight Davis as a potential future trade candidate if early results disappoint, yet the Wizards' investment in the pairing and reluctance to accept subpar offers sustain trader consensus on stability. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid underperformance prompting a midseason deal to a suitor like the Rockets or a player-requested move if extension negotiations stall.