The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 8, 2026 ruling overturned the April referendum that had approved a constitutional amendment for mid-decade redistricting, citing violations of the state constitution’s intervening-election requirement. That decision kept the 2021 court-drawn map in place for the November 2026 elections, with primaries already conducted under those lines on August 4. Appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court did not alter the outcome. Traders assign “No” a 96.2 percent implied probability because the procedural barrier and timeline leave virtually no pathway for a new map to be enacted and implemented before Election Day. The only remaining theoretical shifts would require an extraordinary last-minute federal intervention that overrides the state court’s final order—an outcome unsupported by precedent or current docket status.