The Russia-Ukraine peace process enters this stretch in poor recent form after months of stalled negotiations and limited progress in trilateral meetings. Ukraine’s recent battlefield gains and Russia’s insistence on territorial concessions in the Donbas create a tough stylistic matchup, with both sides showing defensive resolve on core issues like security guarantees. A brief three-day ceasefire in mid-May offered short-term rest and a prisoner swap, but persistent violations and maximalist demands have kept the overall outlook competitive for the favorite. Trader consensus at 81% on no resolution reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in these entrenched dynamics and schedule challenges ahead.