The three teams promoted from Serie B—Venezia, Frosinone, and Monza—enter the 2026-27 campaign as the clearest relegation candidates, consistent with the pattern of newly promoted sides rarely surviving their return to Serie A. Pre-season models from Opta simulations assign Monza the highest drop probability (around 43%), followed closely by Frosinone (41%), with Venezia and long-term struggler Lecce also flagged in the mid-30% range. Venezia benefits from Serie B dominance and striker Akor Adams, while Monza leans on Patrick Cutrone’s experience and Frosinone seeks a fourth straight survival attempt under Massimiliano Alvini. Early results have reinforced concerns, with the promoted sides collecting points slowly against established opponents. Key variables include squad adaptation, home results, and whether mid-table sides like Cagliari or Parma avoid poor starts that could intensify the dogfight.