Recent hot October CPI data, with headline rising 0.4% month-over-month and core up 0.3%—both exceeding forecasts—has shifted market-implied odds toward a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, where updated projections will also be released. The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67 on November 13 after trading near 7,800 earlier in the fall, supported by robust Q3 earnings growth of about 31% year-over-year and solid analyst beats across sectors. Hawkish Fed commentary and resilient labor market readings (165,000 October payrolls, 4.1% unemployment) reinforce a higher-for-longer policy path that could weigh on valuations while underpinning corporate revenue trends through year-end.
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