State Sen. Mayes Middleton holds a commanding position in the Texas Republican primary runoff for attorney general, driven by his nine-point lead in a May University of Houston poll and a key endorsement from Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Middleton advanced from the March primary as the top vote-getter after self-funding nearly $14 million, giving him a significant resource edge over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy. The contest, set for May 26 with early voting beginning May 18, centers on conservative priorities such as election integrity and challenges to longstanding Supreme Court precedents. Traders see Middleton's polling strength, institutional support, and campaign infrastructure as the primary factors behind current implied probabilities, though Roy continues to emphasize his legislative record and Texas-focused approach in recent forums.