Sean Strickland’s December 2026 return timeline after his May split-decision victory over Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 and a February stoppage of Anthony Hernandez has sharpened focus on the middleweight title picture. Nassourdine Imavov leads the market at 49 percent implied probability as the division’s longest active win-streak fighter who was passed over for the Chimaev bout and has repeatedly been told by the UFC he is next, with added personal motivation from their 2023 loss and ongoing trash talk. Chimaev sits at 37.5 percent because of his high-profile name recognition, relentless public demands for an immediate rematch, and the razor-thin nature of the first fight despite his documented weight-cut struggles. Dricus du Plessis remains a distant 1.6 percent option given his two prior wins over Strickland produced lower-interest decisions and his upcoming bout with Kamaru Usman, leaving traders to weigh Imavov’s merit-based positioning against Chimaev’s drawing power and Strickland’s injury recovery as the primary drivers of current consensus.