Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence through mid-2026, with Italy's INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting only background fumarolic emissions, minimal seismicity, and no measurable ground deformation or elevated gas fluxes. This low-energy regime, consistent with a 50-year seismic analysis published in 2026, aligns with the volcano's dormancy since its last eruption in 1944 and keeps the official alert level at green. Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability to "No" for any VEI 1+ event this year because even modest explosive activity typically requires detectable precursory unrest that is currently absent. A sudden shift could still occur if new seismic swarms or deformation appear in the final months, though historical patterns and continuous monitoring make unheralded escalation unlikely before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
5% संभावना
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence through mid-2026, with Italy's INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting only background fumarolic emissions, minimal seismicity, and no measurable ground deformation or elevated gas fluxes. This low-energy regime, consistent with a 50-year seismic analysis published in 2026, aligns with the volcano's dormancy since its last eruption in 1944 and keeps the official alert level at green. Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability to "No" for any VEI 1+ event this year because even modest explosive activity typically requires detectable precursory unrest that is currently absent. A sudden shift could still occur if new seismic swarms or deformation appear in the final months, though historical patterns and continuous monitoring make unheralded escalation unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$647समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence through mid-2026, with Italy's INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting only background fumarolic emissions, minimal seismicity, and no measurable ground deformation or elevated gas fluxes. This low-energy regime, consistent with a 50-year seismic analysis published in 2026, aligns with the volcano's dormancy since its last eruption in 1944 and keeps the official alert level at green. Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability to "No" for any VEI 1+ event this year because even modest explosive activity typically requires detectable precursory unrest that is currently absent. A sudden shift could still occur if new seismic swarms or deformation appear in the final months, though historical patterns and continuous monitoring make unheralded escalation unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
वॉल्यूम
$647समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence through mid-2026, with Italy's INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting only background fumarolic emissions, minimal seismicity, and no measurable ground deformation or elevated gas fluxes. This low-energy regime, consistent with a 50-year seismic analysis published in 2026, aligns with the volcano's dormancy since its last eruption in 1944 and keeps the official alert level at green. Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability to "No" for any VEI 1+ event this year because even modest explosive activity typically requires detectable precursory unrest that is currently absent. A sudden shift could still occur if new seismic swarms or deformation appear in the final months, though historical patterns and continuous monitoring make unheralded escalation unlikely before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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