Viktor Orbán lost power after his Fidesz party’s April 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which secured a supermajority and launched asset-recovery efforts plus probes into alleged misuse of EU funds, the National Cultural Fund, and related procurement schemes. Hungarian prosecutors have conducted raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioned former officials, with Hungary set to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office for retrospective EU-fraud cases, yet no arrest warrant or indictment has targeted Orbán personally. Traders’ 91% implied probability of no arrest by year-end reflects the measured pace of these investigations, Orbán’s ongoing public role in opposition politics, and the absence of recent developments indicating imminent detention.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
10% संभावना
$34,911 वॉल्यूम
$34,911 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
10% संभावना
$34,911 वॉल्यूम
$34,911 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost power after his Fidesz party’s April 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which secured a supermajority and launched asset-recovery efforts plus probes into alleged misuse of EU funds, the National Cultural Fund, and related procurement schemes. Hungarian prosecutors have conducted raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioned former officials, with Hungary set to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office for retrospective EU-fraud cases, yet no arrest warrant or indictment has targeted Orbán personally. Traders’ 91% implied probability of no arrest by year-end reflects the measured pace of these investigations, Orbán’s ongoing public role in opposition politics, and the absence of recent developments indicating imminent detention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,911समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost power after his Fidesz party’s April 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which secured a supermajority and launched asset-recovery efforts plus probes into alleged misuse of EU funds, the National Cultural Fund, and related procurement schemes. Hungarian prosecutors have conducted raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioned former officials, with Hungary set to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office for retrospective EU-fraud cases, yet no arrest warrant or indictment has targeted Orbán personally. Traders’ 91% implied probability of no arrest by year-end reflects the measured pace of these investigations, Orbán’s ongoing public role in opposition politics, and the absence of recent developments indicating imminent detention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$34,911समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán lost power after his Fidesz party’s April 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, which secured a supermajority and launched asset-recovery efforts plus probes into alleged misuse of EU funds, the National Cultural Fund, and related procurement schemes. Hungarian prosecutors have conducted raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioned former officials, with Hungary set to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office for retrospective EU-fraud cases, yet no arrest warrant or indictment has targeted Orbán personally. Traders’ 91% implied probability of no arrest by year-end reflects the measured pace of these investigations, Orbán’s ongoing public role in opposition politics, and the absence of recent developments indicating imminent detention.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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