Severe drought and record-low water levels on the Danube in August 2026, driven by prolonged heat and minimal precipitation across Central and Eastern Europe, have pushed trader consensus toward recovery in September or October. Budapest and other gauges have hit historic lows, disrupting shipping, hydropower, and nuclear cooling operations, with no significant rainfall expected in the near term. Seasonal patterns typically bring increased autumn precipitation that could restore normal flows, supporting the leading October 1-31 outcome at 39.5% and the combined September probabilities near 45%. The low 9.5% chance before September 1 reflects the current trajectory and forecasts showing sustained dry conditions, while the slim 3.6% probability of no return by November accounts for potential extended dry spells.