Liverpool’s firm refusal to sell Cody Gakpo without signing at least two attacking reinforcements, combined with his contract running until 2030, underpins the 54.5% implied probability he remains at Anfield. Tottenham’s long-standing pursuit, including reported personal terms, and Manchester City’s recent direct contact with his representatives have created a competitive dynamic among Premier League clubs seeking forward options ahead of the September deadline. Gakpo’s goal in Liverpool’s opening draw against Newcastle and his versatility across the front line have kept his market value elevated above £70m, while the historical reluctance to sell to direct rivals like City further fragments sentiment across outcomes. The tight bunching around 41-54% reflects unresolved squad-building needs on Merseyside and active but unadvanced interest elsewhere.