Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$142,524 वॉल्यूम
$142,524 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
$142,524 वॉल्यूम
$142,524 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$142,524समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$142,524समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न