Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 65.5% implied probability for a Half-Life 3 announcement before 2027, driven by Valve's infamous radio silence and two-decade history of unmet expectations for the flagship sequel. Late April 2026 rumors—sparked by a now-deleted podcast clip from a Valve artist alluding to ongoing development and speculation over Hideo Kojima's office visit pointing to a "3"—fizzled without official corroboration, reinforcing skepticism among skin-in-the-game bettors. Despite tying into the recent Steam Machine hardware push, no teasers emerged, aligning with Valve's no-roadmap philosophy seen in past surprises like Half-Life: Alyx. Key catalysts ahead include Summer Game Fest in June and potential Steam events, though traders see slim odds of a breakthrough given the seven months left.