Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
$8,620,244 वॉल्यूम
June 30
$1,151,661 वॉल्यूम
<1%
September 30
$978,054 वॉल्यूम
5%
December 31, 2026
$307,603 वॉल्यूम
21%
$8,620,244 वॉल्यूम
June 30
<1%
September 30
5%
December 31, 2026
21%
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 4, 2025, 10:19 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No official MetaMask token launch or public trading by mid-2026
June 30 drops to 0%5%
Despite earlier confirmations and preparations, the MASK token had not been officially launched or made publicly tradable by June 29, 2026, leading to a collapse in market probabilities for a 2025 or mid-2026 launch.
MetaMask token launch widely anticipated in Q3-Q4 2026, aligned with ConsenSys IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
Market analysis and credible reports indicate the most realistic launch window for the MetaMask $MASK token is Q3 to Q4 2026, potentially timed with the ConsenSys IPO. This pushed market probabilities lower for earlier launch dates within the analysis window.
No official MetaMask token launch by mid-2026, market confidence near zero
June 30 drops to 1%6%
By mid-2026, MetaMask had not officially launched a publicly transferable and tradable token, leading to market prices for token launch by June 30 and September 30 dropping to near zero, reflecting consensus that the token launch will not occur by these dates.
Market consensus shifts to expecting MetaMask token launch in late 2026 or beyond
By mid-2026, market prices for all resolution dates had dropped significantly, reflecting consensus that the $MASK token launch would not occur by the end of 2025 or mid-2026. Analysts and community sentiment point to a realistic launch window in Q3-Q4 2026 or later.
No official MetaMask token launch by end of 2025 confirmed
As of mid-2026, no official announcement or evidence of a publicly tradable MetaMask token launch by December 31, 2025, has been made. Market prices for all 2025 launch outcomes have collapsed near zero, indicating consensus on a 'No' resolution for the 2025 deadline.
MetaMask Agent Wallet gains early access users and plans summer public launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped early access to 200 users for its AI Agent Wallet and announced a broader public launch planned for summer 2026, signaling product expansion but no token launch confirmation.
Phishing Scam Impersonates MetaMask MASK Token Allocation
A malicious email phishing campaign surfaced, falsely claiming the launch of the MASK token and attempting to steal users' wallet recovery phrases.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access with AI trading features
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%7%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities, expanding its ecosystem but without launching the $MASK token, reinforcing market sentiment that the token launch would not occur before mid-2026.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet enabling AI-powered DeFi trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, allowing AI frameworks to autonomously execute trades while users retain control. This product launch expanded MetaMask's ecosystem but did not include the $MASK token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty and price decline.
MetaMask Institutional Early Access Program opens for limited traders and developers
The launch of an Early Access Program for institutional users indicates ongoing platform development but no direct MASK token launch, sustaining market uncertainty.
MetaMask opens early access to Agent Wallet with 200 spots for AI-powered trading
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped initial access to its Agent Wallet at 200 traders and developers, emphasizing security and control for AI-driven trading. This launch was a significant product milestone but did not include a token launch, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term token issuance.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-powered autonomous DeFi trading
On June 8, 2026, MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet designed for AI agents to autonomously execute trades and DeFi interactions under user-defined controls. This launch was significant for MetaMask's product expansion but did not involve launching a new token. The wallet supports multiple EVM chains and includes security features like transaction simulation and threat scanning.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-driven autonomous DeFi trading in early access
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, a CLI-first product allowing AI agents to trade autonomously with user-defined controls. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product suite but did not constitute a token launch, contributing to continued market decline in token launch probability.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven autonomous trading while maintaining user control. This innovation reflects ongoing platform development but does not indicate a MASK token launch, coinciding with low market probabilities for a token launch by June 30, 2026.
MetaMask emphasizes security in AI Agent Wallet launch with transaction protection
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask highlighted security features including transaction simulation and up to $10,000 coverage for safe transactions in the AI Agent Wallet, reinforcing user trust but unrelated to MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet enabling AI-driven DeFi trading, showcasing ongoing innovation but with no MASK token launch, maintaining low market probabilities for token release by mid-2026.
MetaMask CEO confirms $MASK token launch expected in near future
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token launch is expected soon, likely aligned with a ConsenSys IPO in late 2026. This statement reinforced market expectations for a later launch rather than before June 30, 2026.
MetaMask Agent Wallet launches early access for advanced trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched early access for its Agent Wallet, enabling advanced trading features and signaling ongoing product development but no $MASK token launch yet, maintaining market uncertainty about timing.
MetaMask launches AI Agent Wallet in early access for 200 users
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven crypto trading with built-in security features, showcasing product innovation but not signaling a MASK token launch, coinciding with a slight price decline in token launch probabilities.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access, no MASK token launch
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet early access program aimed at advanced users, but no MASK token was launched, indicating the token launch remains pending and market confidence remains low for a 2026 mid-year launch.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet for AI-Powered DeFi Trading
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask introduced its self-custodial Agent Wallet in early access, allowing autonomous AI software to execute trades and manage capital within user-defined rules.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet in Early Access
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced its Agent Wallet for AI-driven trading. While showcasing product innovation, the release did not signal any progress toward a native MASK token generation event.
MetaMask USD stablecoin (mUSD) maintains stable $1 price
MetaMask's own stablecoin, mUSD, launched in September 2025, continued to trade steadily at $1, demonstrating MetaMask's expanding token ecosystem. This stablecoin is distinct from the MASK token and does not indicate a MASK token launch.
MetaMask USD (mUSD) price reaches $1 per token
June 30 dips to 2%2%
The price of MetaMask USD (mUSD) was confirmed at $1 per token on June 4, 2026, solidifying its status as a stablecoin and a publicly tradable token.
No official MASK token launch by mid-2026, market odds decline sharply
June 30 drops to 1%6%
By mid-2026, no official launch of the MASK token had occurred, leading to a sharp decline in market probabilities for token launch by June 30 and September 30, reflecting growing skepticism about a 2025 or early 2026 launch.
MetaMask integrates stablecoin and expands ecosystem ahead of token launch
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
MetaMask integrated the mUSD stablecoin and expanded features like the Linea network, signaling ecosystem growth in preparation for the MASK token launch. However, the token remained unreleased, keeping market prices low.
MetaMask joins Open Transaction Layer initiative to standardize on-chain financial transactions
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
MetaMask partnered with major firms to launch the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), aiming to standardize on-chain transaction coordination. This strategic move enhanced MetaMask's infrastructure role but did not involve a token launch, influencing market sentiment downward.
Open Transaction Layer (OTL) launches with MetaMask as a founding member
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
MetaMask joined Fireblocks, Robinhood, and others to launch OTL, a protocol to standardize on-chain financial transactions, enhancing MetaMask's infrastructure role but not directly affecting token launch timing.
MetaMask, Robinhood, and Fireblocks Launch Open Transaction Layer
A coalition of major financial and crypto firms launched the Open Transaction Layer (OTL) to standardize on-chain financial transactions and enable access to tokenized equities.
Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)
June 30 dips to 2%3%
MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.
Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.
MetaMask launches US payment card with onchain rewards via Mastercard partnership
MetaMask expanded its product ecosystem with a US payment card offering onchain rewards, enhancing user engagement but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
ConsenSys clarifies MetaMask does not collect taxes on crypto transactions amid rumors
ConsenSys publicly refuted misinformation about MetaMask collecting taxes on crypto transactions, maintaining user trust but not impacting the token launch timeline or market prices significantly.
npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.
Consensys delays $7B IPO to fall 2026
Consensys postponed its planned IPO to fall 2026, likely delaying the $MASK token launch which is expected to coincide with the IPO, reducing near-term token launch probability.
Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunched with new features and benefits
December 31, 2026 surges to 52%19%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges, airdrops, and a new Benefits tab, signaling ongoing preparation for the MASK token launch and continued user engagement. This sustained market interest in the token's eventual release.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with Benefits Tab but No Native Token
June 30 dips to 8%1%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, but still without any native MASK token, keeping near-term launch probabilities extremely low.
MetaMask Rewards Program Returns with New Benefits Tab
MetaMask updated its Rewards program, introducing trading challenges, airdrops, and a new Benefits tab powered by theMiracle to surface perks and token allocations.
MetaMask Rewards relaunches with new challenges and benefits tab
MetaMask Rewards program resumed with new features, indicating ongoing ecosystem development but no immediate $MASK token launch, keeping market expectations for a 2026 launch alive.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 begins, points carry over for future MASK token allocation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched Season 2 of its Rewards program, continuing point accumulation that is expected to factor into the eventual MASK token distribution, signaling a delayed but ongoing launch process.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new challenges and token allocation benefits
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%5%
In May 2026, MetaMask Rewards relaunched with new trading challenges and a Benefits tab showing token allocations, indicating ongoing preparation for the $MASK token launch but no actual token issuance yet, maintaining market uncertainty and low prices.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 launches with new challenges and token allocation perks
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program for Season 2, continuing to build user engagement and signaling ongoing preparation for the MASK token launch. However, no official token generation event occurred, contributing to declining market confidence in a near-term launch.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new features and token allocation perks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%9%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a Benefits tab, enhancing user engagement and hinting at upcoming MASK token allocations, sustaining market interest in the token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over from Season 1
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
Announcement of Season 2 of MetaMask Rewards with points carrying over from Season 1 indicated ongoing preparation for token distribution but no official token launch yet, causing some price fluctuations.
MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%12%
MetaMask revived its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner token allocations, but did not announce its own native token, keeping the launch timeline speculative.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab and Partner Airdrops
June 30 dips to 5%3%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without launching its own native token, reinforcing expectations of a delayed token launch.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new Benefits tab, no token announced
June 30 dips to 1%4%
MetaMask announced the return of the Rewards program (new Benefits tab) without any token launch, reinforcing traders’ view that the token was still not imminent; the June‑30 probability fell to the 1‑% range by June 11.
MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%7%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with new trading challenges and a Benefits tab. The continuation of points farming rather than a token launch pushed expectations further out into late 2026.
MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay departs ConsenSys
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Dan Finlay, co-founder of MetaMask, announced his departure from ConsenSys, raising concerns about the project's future and contributing to market skepticism about the imminent token launch.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay announces departure after 10 years
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Dan Finlay's exit marked a significant leadership change during a critical period of MetaMask's evolution and token launch preparations, possibly impacting project momentum.
Consensys prepares 2026 IPO, signaling shift away from immediate token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
Consensys filed for a 2026 IPO, shifting investor focus to equity financing rather than a native token, which nudged the December‑31‑2026 probability down from 44 % in early May to 28 % by June 11.
Societe Generale Expands USD Stablecoin Access to MetaMask Users
June 30 rises to 9%1%
Societe Generale-FORGE made its USD CoinVertible (EUR/USD) stablecoin available on MetaMask through a partnership with Consensys, expanding institutional digital money access.
Societe Generale expands USD stablecoin access to MetaMask users
Societe Generale-FORGE partnered with ConsenSys to make its USD CoinVertible token available on MetaMask, increasing MetaMask's ecosystem utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch anticipation.
SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask
Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.
MetaMask expands trading with tokenized stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance integration
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
MetaMask enabled trading of 264 tokenized stocks and ETFs directly inside its wallet, expanding its DeFi offerings but not launching a native token. This development increased platform utility but did not fulfill token launch criteria, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new trading challenges and airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%6%
MetaMask Rewards returned with new features including trading challenges and token allocations, enhancing user engagement but not signaling a full token launch. This maintained interest in the MASK token but did not confirm tradability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends with $30 million in Linea token distributions
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
MetaMask concluded its first Rewards season distributing $LINEA tokens and other perks, signaling ongoing token-related activity but not a $MASK token launch. This event maintained interest but did not confirm a tradable $MASK token.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or public trading by early April 2026
June 30 drops to 7%7%
By April 2026, despite strong community anticipation and ongoing rewards programs, MetaMask had not officially launched the $MASK token or enabled public trading, leading to a significant decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 launch.
Linea Shifts to Sustainable LINEA Token Model and Launches Yield Boost
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Linea transitioned from its temporary points system to the sustainable LINEA token, integrating it with the MetaMask Card. This shift further confirmed that Consensys was prioritizing the LINEA ecosystem over an immediate MASK token launch, keeping June 30 odds near zero.
MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout
December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.
MetaMask CEO reiterates MASK token launch is imminent, but no launch yet
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%15%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MASK token launch is imminent, but no active launch or tradable token appeared. This caused a temporary price spike due to renewed optimism, followed by declines as the launch did not materialize.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over for future token allocation
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%27%
MetaMask announced Season 2 of its Rewards program, with points from Season 1 carrying over and expected to factor into the future MASK token allocation. This signaled ongoing preparation but no immediate token launch, causing mixed market reactions.
MetaMask launches official $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallets
MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens through the official portal. This confirmed the token's existence and decentralized governance intent but occurred after the 2025 resolution date, impacting market prices negatively for earlier outcomes.
MetaMask confirms no official $MASK token claim portal live as of March 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%11%
MetaMask and ConsenSys clarified that no official $MASK token claim portal was live, warning users about phishing scams, which dampened short-term launch expectations and caused market price declines.
ConsenSys legal victory over SEC clears regulatory path for MetaMask token
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%13%
ConsenSys won a critical legal battle against the SEC, removing a major regulatory obstacle for the MASK token launch. Despite this, the token was still not launched by mid-2026, reflecting ongoing cautious execution.
MetaMask officially launches $MASK token airdrop for eligible users
MetaMask launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens via an official portal. This event marks the actual launch of the $MASK token, fulfilling the market's resolution criteria for the token launch event.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible users
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%18%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible users to claim tokens and marking the actual token launch event, which was a critical milestone for market resolution.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop announced for eligible users
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%15%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop for eligible users active before March 2026, marking the first public distribution of the token and validating the token's existence and tradability.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop officially launches for eligible wallets
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible users to claim tokens based on prior activity. This event marked the actual token launch, confirming the market's eventual resolution to 'No' for earlier 2025 and 2026 dates but supporting a later launch timeline.
MASK token airdrop officially launches for eligible MetaMask wallets
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
MetaMask began distributing MASK tokens via an official airdrop portal to eligible users based on on-chain activity, marking the first public availability of the token but not a full tradable launch, causing some market reaction.
MetaMask hints at early‑2026 Card rollout, no token news
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask posted a brief update that the upcoming MetaMask Card would launch in early 2026, but offered no token‑related news. The market interpreted the silence as further delay, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds down to 32 % on 2026‑03‑10.
Consensys CEO says MetaMask token may arrive sooner than expected
June 30 dips to 9%4%
Consensys CEO Joe Lubin, in an interview with The Block, reiterated that the token could still arrive “sooner than expected,” but gave no concrete timeline. The lack of a firm date caused further price decay for all three outcomes, especially the June‑30 market that dropped to 5 % by late May.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or claim portal opened by early 2026
June 30 drops to 1%13%
Despite ongoing speculation and points accumulation in the Rewards program, no official $MASK token generation event or public trading launch occurred by early 2026, causing market probabilities to decline sharply.
Consensys prepares for 2026 IPO, influencing MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Consensys's plans for a 2026 IPO created strategic considerations for the timing of the MASK token launch, as launching before or after the IPO could have regulatory and market implications. This uncertainty kept market probabilities low for a 2025 launch.
No official MetaMask token launch or airdrop by early 2026, market confidence declines
June 30 plunges to 0%22%
Despite earlier signals, no official token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, leading to a significant drop in market prices and shifting expectations to a later launch window in Q3-Q4 2026.
MetaMask Parent Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%10%
Reports emerged that Consensys is planning a Wall Street IPO for 2026, shifting the company's focus toward traditional equity markets and potentially delaying the native token launch.
No official $MASK token generation event or public trading by end of 2025
September 30 plunges to 5%48%
Despite strong signals and community anticipation, MetaMask did not launch a publicly tradable $MASK token by December 31, 2025, causing market prices for the 2025 launch outcome to collapse sharply.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards. The lack of a token launch announcement pushed expectations further out, causing the December 31, 2026 option to drop.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window as Focus Shifts to Future Seasons
September 30 drops to 18%11%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming that the immediate distribution phase was over without any MASK token launch, further depressing early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 9%10%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without a MASK token launch, reinforcing market doubts about a 2025 or early 2026 launch and contributing to falling market probabilities.
MetaMask announces Season 2 of Rewards program, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 14%13%
MetaMask confirmed that Season 2 of its Rewards program is coming soon, continuing the points-based system but without launching the MASK token, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed token launch beyond early 2026.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launched
September 30 dips to 18%1%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without any MASK token distribution, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2025 launch and causing further price declines across all resolution dates.
MetaMask expands wallet features with tokenized stocks and Bitcoin support
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%22%
MetaMask integrated tokenized US stocks via Ondo Finance and launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its ecosystem but not directly advancing the MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.
SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys dismissed, clearing regulatory hurdle
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
The SEC dismissed its lawsuit against ConsenSys regarding MetaMask's staking and swap features, removing a major regulatory risk and enabling progress toward the MASK token launch, positively impacting market sentiment.
SEC dismisses lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask services
June 30 drops to 14%8%
The U.S. SEC announced dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask’s staking and swap features, removing a regulatory cloud but also resetting expectations for a token launch, which slid the June‑30 probability to single‑digit levels.
Consensys announces MetaMask token launch expected in near future amid IPO plans
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Consensys, MetaMask's parent company, announced plans for a 2026 IPO and reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token would launch soon. This announcement briefly increased market optimism but did not result in an immediate token launch, causing mixed market reactions.
MetaMask announces upcoming Season 2 of Rewards program
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%11%
MetaMask confirmed that Season 2 of the Rewards program was coming soon, continuing the points system that is expected to tie into the MASK token airdrop. However, no official token launch date was provided, maintaining uncertainty and contributing to declining market prices.
MetaMask officially closes Season 1 claim window for Linea rewards
June 30 dips to 13%1%
The closing of the claim window for Season 1 rewards marked the end of the initial phase of user incentives, with no MASK token launch yet, contributing to further market price declines for early launch dates.
Consensys plans 2026 IPO, $MASK token launch anticipated in Q3-Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, with the $MASK token launch widely anticipated to coincide with this event in the latter half of 2026, pushing market expectations for a 2025 launch further out and depressing prices for earlier resolution dates.
MetaMask closes Season 1 rewards, announces Season 2 coming soon
MetaMask ended its first rewards season distributing LINEA tokens and announced an upcoming Season 2, which is expected to integrate the MASK token. This prolonged anticipation but the lack of a token launch by this time contributed to declining market confidence for a 2025 launch.
Polymarket Odds for MetaMask Token Launch Drop Sharply
September 30 plunges to 34%29%
Following the end of Season 1 and lack of official token generation event, prediction market odds for a MetaMask token launch by September 30, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing market skepticism about an imminent launch.
Market sentiment shifts to delay in MetaMask token launch
June 30 drops to 13%9%
Analyses and reports highlighted regulatory uncertainties, market downturns, and lack of official token generation event signals, leading to a sharp decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO, Shifting Token Expectations to Late 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
Reports of Consensys planning a 2026 IPO aligned the expected MASK token launch timeline with late 2026, causing earlier target dates to lose probability while December 31, 2026 experienced volatile adjustments.
Consensys SEC Lawsuit Dismissal De-Risks Regulatory Path
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%29%
The SEC's formal dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask's staking features provided critical regulatory relief, clearing a major legal hurdle for any future token launch.
MetaMask Token Launch Expectations Shift Out to Late 2026 Following Season 1 Close
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
With Season 1 claims closed and no MASK token in sight, the December 31, 2026, market bottomed out at 24% before stabilizing as the most realistic remaining window.
Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.
MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%
On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.
MetaMask integrates tokenized stocks via Ondo Finance, expanding asset offerings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%25%
MetaMask broadened its platform by supporting tokenized stocks through Ondo Finance integration, signaling a strategic focus on multi-asset access rather than immediate MASK token launch. This shift contributed to declining market confidence in a near-term MASK token launch.
MetaMask Card Launches in the US in Partnership with Mastercard
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US, shifting focus toward product utility rather than immediate token generation.
MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance for Tokenized Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask expanded its platform utility by supporting tokenized traditional assets like Apple and Microsoft shares, shifting focus toward product expansion rather than a token launch.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%22%
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by integrating tokenized US stocks and ETFs through Ondo Finance, broadening its financial offerings but not directly related to the MASK token launch. This development showed MetaMask's growth but did not accelerate token issuance.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized U.S. Stocks
June 30 rises to 14%1%
MetaMask launched an integration with Ondo Finance to allow non-U.S. users to trade over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs directly inside the mobile wallet.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
MetaMask expanded its offerings by enabling access to tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities through Ondo Finance, broadening its financial ecosystem. This move signaled MetaMask's evolution beyond a simple wallet, but did not directly impact the token launch timeline.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
MetaMask launched support for trading tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance. While expanding DeFi utility, it confirmed that Consensys was still only considering a native token with no official launch date.
MetaMask integrates 200+ tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo
MetaMask expanded wallet functionality by integrating tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing user offerings but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Global Markets
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by integrating access to over 200 tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing its role as a unified digital finance platform. This expansion reflects MetaMask's growing ecosystem but does not directly indicate a $MASK token launch.
MetaMask integrates Ondo to offer tokenized U.S. stocks inside wallet
MetaMask expanded its offerings by enabling users to trade tokenized U.S. securities, enhancing platform utility but not directly related to MASK token launch, reflecting broader ecosystem growth.
MetaMask adds tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo integration
MetaMask integrated tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities through Ondo Global Markets, expanding its financial offerings and user base. This move demonstrated MetaMask's growing ecosystem but did not directly indicate a MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Integrates Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
September 30 drops to 21%13%
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by adding support for tokenized traditional assets, shifting focus toward product utility rather than an immediate native token launch.
Consensys plans 2026 IPO, adding uncertainty to token launch timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, which could affect the timing of the MetaMask token launch as the company balances regulatory and market considerations, leading to cautious market sentiment and price declines.
MetaMask Points Program Season 1 ends with no MASK token generation event
December 31, 2026 plunges to 40%26%
The conclusion of the first MetaMask Rewards season ended without a token generation event, disappointing users and signaling that the MASK token launch would not occur in 2025. This contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 launch.
MetaMask claim portal redirects to homepage, no token materializes
June 30 drops to 17%5%
The claims.metamask.io portal, initially password-protected, began redirecting users to MetaMask's homepage without any token distribution, confirming delays and causing further market price drops.
MetaMask announces continuation of rewards program, signaling delayed MASK token launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
MetaMask announced Season 2 of its rewards program, indicating that the MASK token launch was postponed beyond 2025. This announcement further reduced market confidence in a near-term token launch.
Consensys files for 2026 IPO, signaling strategic timing for MetaMask token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, which may influence the timing of the MetaMask token launch due to regulatory and strategic considerations. This development contributed to market skepticism about a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
No official MetaMask token launch or airdrop announced by early 2026
September 30 plunges to 6%28%
By early 2026, despite ongoing speculation and market anticipation, MetaMask had not launched a tradable token or announced a token generation event, causing market prices for a 2025 launch to collapse and shift expectations to later dates.
No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026
Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.
Market sentiment declines as no $MASK token launch occurs by early 2026
June 30 plunges to 15%17%
Despite earlier confirmations and infrastructure signals, no official $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, causing market prices for token launch by June and September 2026 to fall sharply. The delay reflects regulatory caution and strategic timing considerations by ConsenSys.
SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys dismissed, reducing regulatory risk for token launch
The dismissal of the SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask staking features removed a major regulatory hurdle, improving the outlook for a future MASK token launch and influencing market sentiment positively.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal by SEC clears regulatory uncertainty
In early 2026, the SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Consensys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risk but no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market uncertainty.
No $MASK token claim portal materializes; claims.metamask.io redirects to homepage
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Despite earlier signals, the expected $MASK token claim portal did not launch; the domain redirected to MetaMask's homepage, increasing skepticism about a near-term token launch and causing market prices to fall further.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal reduces regulatory uncertainty for MetaMask token
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
The SEC dismissed its lawsuit against ConsenSys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risks and potentially clearing the way for the MASK token launch. However, no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market caution.
No MetaMask token launch by end of January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 6%19%
Despite earlier confirmations and the Rewards program, no $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by late January 2026. This delay led to a significant drop in market odds, reflecting skepticism about a 2025 launch and shifting expectations to later in 2026.
No MetaMask token launch or airdrop by late January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 9%23%
Despite earlier optimism, by late January 2026 no $MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, revealing regulatory and strategic delays, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for token launch probability.
No MASK token launch or airdrop by late January 2026 despite prior signals
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
By late January 2026, no official MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, despite earlier confirmations and community anticipation. This delay reflected regulatory caution and strategic timing related to Consensys's IPO plans, leading to declining market probabilities.
Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.
Market Analysis Highlights Regulatory and IPO Pressures Delaying MASK Token
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Reports highlighted that Consensys's planned mid-2026 IPO and regulatory scrutiny during the pre-IPO quiet period were delaying the MASK token launch, pushing expectations to late 2026.
Analysis highlights delay in MetaMask token launch amid regulatory and strategic tensions
June 30 drops to 12%9%
A detailed analysis revealed that despite strong anticipation, the MetaMask token launch was delayed due to regulatory strategy and a planned ConsenSys IPO. This explained the absence of a tradable token by early 2026 and contributed to further market price declines.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends; claim window closes
The first season of MetaMask Rewards ended, closing the claim window for $LINEA tokens. This marked the completion of a key phase in the token launch preparation, with points expected to carry over to Season 2 and influence $MASK token allocation.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Closes Without Token Launch
June 30 drops to 11%7%
The first season of the MetaMask Points Program officially concluded on January 23, 2026. The lack of an immediate token generation event or airdrop announcement led to a sharp decline in the probability of a June 30 launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Ends, Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
June 30 drops to 11%7%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards concluded on January 23, 2026, distributing LINEA tokens rather than the native MASK token. This disappointed users and signaled that a native token launch was not imminent, causing the June 30 and September 30 probabilities to drop.
MetaMask Concludes Rewards Season 1 with LINEA Distribution, Sparking User Disappointment
September 30 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask officially ended Season 1 of its Rewards program on January 23, 2026, distributing LINEA tokens instead of the native MASK token. This lack of MASK rewards severely damaged near-term launch expectations, causing the September 30 odds to drop sharply.
MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch
June 30 plunges to 13%65%
MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, closing initial points accumulation phase
The conclusion of the first Rewards season provided data for finalizing tokenomics and airdrop eligibility, but no token launch followed, tempering market expectations.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Concludes with Linea Token Distribution but No Native MASK Token
June 30 plunges to 14%46%
The first season of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens instead of the highly anticipated native $MASK token, causing a sharp decline in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge
September 30 drops to 65%12%
The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.
MetaMask announces end of Rewards Season 1 with mixed user sentiment
September 30 drops to 59%10%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens rather than $MASK. User sentiment was negative due to lack of direct $MASK rewards, leading to declining market confidence in a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Closes Rewards Season 1 Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
September 30 plunges to 41%19%
MetaMask officially concluded Season 1 of its Rewards program, distributing LINEA tokens and other perks instead of launching its own native MASK token. The lack of a native token generation event disappointed speculative users and depressed early 2026 launch odds.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms $MASK token launch coming sooner than expected
September 30 drops to 68%10%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed that the long-anticipated MetaMask $MASK token would launch in the near future, sparking excitement and increasing market expectations for a 2026 launch.
Traders Reassess Near-Term Launch Odds as Season 1 Nears End Without MASK Token Signals
June 30 plunges to 32%20%
As MetaMask Rewards Season 1 progressed without any official signals of a MASK token generation event, traders began heavily discounting the June 30, 2026, outcome.
MetaMask says token still under development, no launch date set
September 30 drops to 71%7%
MetaMask’s official X account reiterated that the token was still “in development” with no launch date, causing the market’s confidence in a 2025 launch to erode sharply; the September‑30 probability fell below 60 % by early January 2026.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support after 10-month wait
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its multichain wallet capabilities and enhancing user experience, but this did not include launching a native token.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 dips to 54%4%
MetaMask integrated native Bitcoin support, continuing its transition into a comprehensive multichain wallet.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet utility
MetaMask launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and trade BTC directly, increasing wallet utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting token launch anticipation.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multichain Wallet
September 30 rises to 78%4%
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to buy, send, receive, and swap BTC directly. Swaps into BTC earn users rewards points, further paving the way for the native token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support expanding multi-chain capabilities
September 30 plunges to 50%17%
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This expansion of utility increased MetaMask's ecosystem value but did not directly indicate a MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask launches full native Bitcoin support
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly within the wallet. This expansion of multi-chain capabilities enhanced MetaMask's ecosystem and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch narrative.
MetaMask Introduces Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multi-Chain Capabilities
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly inside the wallet, boosting product utility and engagement metrics ahead of potential tokenization.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support, Expanding Beyond Ethereum Ecosystem
June 30 drops to 59%8%
MetaMask officially rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly. This major product update shifted focus toward multi-chain utility rather than an immediate token launch.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by launching native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade BTC directly and earn reward points, keeping the ecosystem highly active.
MetaMask officially launches native Bitcoin support, expanding multichain capabilities
MetaMask rolled out native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and swap BTC directly in-app, enhancing its ecosystem and rewards program. While this was a major product milestone, it did not include a token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty about the token's arrival in 2025.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly. Swapping BTC natively earned users points in the Rewards program, further driving engagement.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support in wallet
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly in the wallet, enhancing its multi-chain capabilities but not directly related to the token launch, causing minor market fluctuations.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support, expanding wallet capabilities
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, signaling a shift towards a multichain wallet but not directly related to the token launch, which may have distracted market focus from the token event.
MetaMask Expands Support to Bitcoin and Integrates Rewards Points
MetaMask officially added support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade and manage BTC in-wallet while earning reward points ahead of its planned native token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support
June 30 plunges to 57%20%
MetaMask announced native Bitcoin support, expanding the wallet’s product roadmap. Analysts interpreted the move as a shift of engineering resources away from a token launch, which helped explain the sharp drop in the “June 30” odds from 77 % (early Nov 2025) to 57 % by 2025‑12‑31.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points
September 30 jumps to 77%6%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Enable In-App Prediction Markets
September 30 plunges to 69%15%
MetaMask launched prediction markets directly within its mobile app through an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, allowing users to earn rewards points tied to its planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Prediction Markets
June 30 drops to 54%6%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket, expanding its in-wallet features and rewards program.
MetaMask integrates Polymarket prediction markets natively in wallet
MetaMask launched native integration with Polymarket, allowing users to trade prediction markets directly within the wallet. This expansion of features increased user engagement and reinforced MetaMask's evolution into a comprehensive DeFi platform, indirectly supporting token launch expectations.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Natively Into Mobile App
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
MetaMask rolled out native prediction markets powered by Polymarket directly inside its mobile app, charging a 4% fee and offering rewards points, which further expanded the wallet's ecosystem utility.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Mobile Prediction Markets
September 30 rises to 70%4%
MetaMask launched native prediction market trading powered by Polymarket directly inside its mobile app. The integration included rewards points connected to the upcoming token launch, reinforcing utility expectations.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Trading with Rewards Points Incentive
June 30 drops to 57%7%
MetaMask launched an in-wallet integration with prediction market platform Polymarket, charging a 4% fee but offering users 2 rewards points per dollar traded. This integration expanded wallet utility and tied directly into the points program paving the way for the planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Launch Prediction Markets Directly in Wallet
June 30 drops to 59%7%
MetaMask partnered with Polymarket to allow users to trade prediction markets directly inside the wallet, fueling speculation that the upcoming token would tie these new financial products together.
MetaMask Integrates Native Prediction Markets Powered by Polymarket
June 30 drops to 57%9%
MetaMask integrated Polymarket natively into its mobile app, introducing a 4% transaction fee but offering points rewards linked to a future token launch, which temporarily shifted focus to product utility.
MetaMask launches $9.99/month Wallet Protection service
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
MetaMask introduced a wallet protection service enhancing security but unrelated directly to the token launch. This launch coincided with a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting waning confidence in a token launch by year-end.
Market resolves 'No' as MetaMask fails to launch token by December 31, 2025
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
The market officially resolved to 'No' after MetaMask did not launch an actively tradable token by the deadline, confirming the market's declining confidence and resulting in sharp price drops across all outcomes.
Phishing Domain Mimicking MetaMask Registered Amid Growing Token Speculation
September 30 dips to 85%2%
A deceptive domain, metamask.io-token.vip, was registered to target MetaMask users, highlighting the intense community anticipation and vulnerability to scams surrounding the rumored token launch.
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin discusses upcoming MetaMask token
On November 17, 2025, Joseph Lubin, ConsenSys CEO, publicly discussed the forthcoming MetaMask token in an interview, reinforcing the token launch narrative and supporting sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
Consensys CEO discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum's future on The Block, reinforcing the token's imminent launch and its importance to the ecosystem, sustaining high market confidence.
Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
In an interview, Joseph Lubin elaborated on the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in decentralizing the platform. This public discussion by a key figure reinforced the legitimacy and imminence of the token launch, supporting sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
Joseph Lubin discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
In an interview, Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discussed the future MetaMask token and its role in decentralizing the platform, providing further official confirmation and sustaining market optimism.
Consensys founder discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin, Consensys founder, discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum ecosystem growth, providing further confirmation and positive sentiment about the token launch prospects.
MetaMask trading volume surges 75% amid growing DeFi adoption
MetaMask reported a 75% increase in trading volume, reflecting heightened user engagement and confidence in the platform's growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, reinforcing bullish sentiment for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 jumps to 90%12%
On November 15, 2025, reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news significantly boosted market confidence, pushing the September 30 outcome price to a high of 90% on November 7 and sustaining elevated levels thereafter.
Reports highlight MetaMask preparing to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Reports emerged that MetaMask is preparing to launch the MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, with potential distribution worth billions, driving strong market enthusiasm and price increases.
MetaMask prepares for MASK token launch with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 rises to 90%3%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation for the highly anticipated MASK token launch, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news further increased market optimism and prices.
MetaMask token launch valuation and market excitement rise
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated $MASK token, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news sustained high market optimism and price levels for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares for major MASK token launch with $2.4 billion distribution estimate
Reports emerged estimating that MetaMask could distribute up to $2.4 billion worth of MASK tokens, making it one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news intensified market excitement and confidence in the token launch by year-end, reflected in sustained high prices for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask USD stablecoin launches on Ethereum and Linea
September 30 dips to 85%2%
MetaMask announced and launched its native stablecoin, MetaMask USD (mUSD), integrated into its ecosystem, signaling expansion of MetaMask's financial offerings but not a direct token launch, which tempered market enthusiasm.
MetaMask prepares to launch MASK token with massive airdrop
September 30 surges to 90%16%
Reports emerged that MetaMask is preparing to launch its highly anticipated MASK token, with expectations of one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news heightened excitement and speculation, driving the market odds for a token launch higher.
MetaMask prepares for highly anticipated MASK token launch with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 jumps to 87%13%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation for the MASK token launch, estimating a large-scale airdrop and significant valuation. This news intensified market excitement and contributed to sustained high prices for the September 30 and June 30 outcomes.
MetaMask prepares for token launch amid Consensys IPO plans
September 30 dips to 87%1%
MetaMask announced a new rewards program and Consensys filed for an IPO, suggesting strategic alignment between public company growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, which increased market optimism.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based Rewards program
MetaMask launched a points-based rewards system allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, signaling progress toward the MASK token launch and sustaining market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask releases Multichain Accounts feature simplifying crosschain experience
MetaMask introduced Multichain Accounts, enhancing user experience across multiple blockchains and signaling ongoing ecosystem development, which supported sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask announces Multichain Accounts feature enhancing user experience
MetaMask released a major update simplifying crosschain experience with Multichain Accounts, signaling ongoing ecosystem development and maintaining user engagement ahead of the token launch. This contributed to sustained high prices for the September 30 outcome.
Consensys CEO reiterates imminent MetaMask token launch
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MetaMask MASK token launch is imminent, reinforcing market expectations. This statement helped sustain high prediction market prices for a token launch by September 30 and June 30, 2025.
MetaMask expands tokenized US stocks trading via Ondo integration
September 30 rises to 87%1%
MetaMask integrated Ondo Finance to offer tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities trading, broadening its ecosystem and increasing anticipation for the MASK token as part of its expanding DeFi offerings.
MetaMask launches Bridge Aggregator feature to enhance cross-chain asset transfers
MetaMask introduced a new bridge aggregator feature to improve user experience in moving assets across blockchains, demonstrating ongoing platform development but unrelated directly to the MASK token launch. This helped maintain user engagement but did not significantly affect token launch market prices.
MetaMask Rewards Program and Domain Discoveries Fuel Near-Term Token Launch Speculation
September 30 jumps to 88%14%
Following the launch of MetaMask Rewards and the discovery of the claim.metamask.io domain, traders bid up the probability of a token launch by September 30, 2026, to its peak of 90%.
Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation
September 30 surges to 90%39%
Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.
MetaMask Rewards program activity spikes amid token launch speculation
September 30 surges to 78%27%
Following the launch of the Rewards program and clarifications, user activity increased significantly, reflected in market price jumps for the September 30 outcome. This surge indicated growing belief in an imminent token launch and airdrop, driving prices from 51% to 78% within days.
Market Prices Surge on Speculation of Imminent MetaMask Token Launch
September 30 surges to 73%22%
On November 5, 2025, the market saw a sharp increase in prices for the September 30 and June 30 token launch outcomes, reflecting heightened speculation and rumors of an imminent MetaMask token launch. This surge was likely driven by unconfirmed reports and increased market chatter, pushing prices to new highs.
MetaMask integrates Polymarket prediction markets into mobile app
September 30 surges to 89%15%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket within its mobile wallet, enhancing user engagement and signaling the platform's evolution toward a token-driven economy, supporting token launch expectations.
MetaMask Launches $30 Million LINEA Token Rewards Program
September 30 surges to 72%19%
MetaMask announced the distribution of over $30 million in LINEA tokens through its rewards program. This concrete reward mechanism reinforced the expectation of a forthcoming native token launch, causing the September 30 outcome odds to surge.
MetaMask Users Express Disappointment Over LINEA Rewards Instead of MASK
September 30 surges to 72%19%
As the Rewards program progressed, community sentiment experienced a shift as users realized Season 1 distributed LINEA tokens rather than the highly anticipated MASK token, causing a temporary adjustment in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Co-Founder Dan Finlay Hints at Native Token Amid Regulatory Shifts
September 30 surges to 73%22%
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay discussed the potential launch of a native token, noting that a more relaxed regulatory environment under the incoming administration makes a token issuance more feasible.
MetaMask launches $30 million LINEA rewards program
September 30 dips to 61%2%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program distributing LINEA tokens, seen as a precursor to the MASK token launch and a way to test reward distribution mechanisms, boosting market confidence in the token launch timeline.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask MASK token launch coming soon
September 30 surges to 74%23%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed that the MetaMask native token, MASK, is launching sooner than expected, reinforcing market optimism and causing a sharp price increase for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask announces $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 74%23%
MetaMask unveiled a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens, distinct but related to the upcoming Token Generation Event. This substantial incentive program reinforced expectations of an imminent token launch, pushing market prices higher.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards and Token Generation Event are distinct but linked
September 30 rises to 87%1%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are separate but interconnected, reinforcing expectations of a MASK token launch and supporting market confidence.
MetaMask clarifies rewards program and Token Generation Event are distinct
June 30 jumps to 69%6%
On November 2, 2025, MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are separate but interconnected efforts, offering over $30 million in LINEA tokens for engagement. This reassured the market about the token launch plans, supporting price gains for both June 30 and September 30 outcomes.
MetaMask Clarifies Separation Between Rewards Program and Token Generation Event
June 30 plunges to 63%15%
MetaMask clarified that its newly launched Rewards program and the anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) are distinct initiatives. This clarification cooled down immediate expectations of a native token launch, causing a temporary drop in the June 30 outcome odds.
MetaMask launches $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 73%22%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens, distinct but related to the upcoming Token Generation Event. This program incentivized user engagement and was seen as a preparatory step toward the MASK token launch, boosting market confidence.
MetaMask clarifies distinction between rewards program and upcoming Token Generation Event
September 30 surges to 74%23%
MetaMask officially clarified that its rewards program and the upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) are separate but interconnected initiatives. This transparency reassured the market about the token launch timeline and structure, supporting further price increases.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards Program and Token Generation Event structure
September 30 jumps to 90%12%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are distinct but interconnected, offering over $30 million in LINEA tokens for engagement. CEO Joseph Lubin emphasized the MASK token's role in decentralization, reinforcing confidence in the token launch timeline.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask token launch soon
June 30 surges to 75%25%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed on a podcast that the MetaMask MASK token is coming and may launch sooner than expected, signaling strong intent and increasing market confidence in a 2025 launch.
MetaMask expands multichain support including Bitcoin and launches perpetual futures trading
MetaMask expanded its wallet to support native Bitcoin transactions and launched perpetual futures trading, enhancing its ecosystem and increasing anticipation for the $MASK token launch.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This program was widely interpreted as a precursor to the token launch, significantly boosting market optimism and causing a sharp price rise in the June 30 outcome.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
September 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, fueling speculation about an imminent MASK token airdrop and driving market prices higher for June 30 and September 30 outcomes.
MetaMask launches points-based rewards system hinting at upcoming token
June 30 surges to 75%25%
In October 2025, MetaMask introduced its first-ever points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This initiative increased market optimism about a forthcoming MASK token, driving up prices for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 75%.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 78%28%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.
Consensys hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for IPO, signaling growth and token launch
September 30 jumps to 89%10%
Consensys, MetaMask's parent company, hired major banks to advise on an IPO, coinciding with the token launch preparations. This move signaled strong institutional confidence and contributed to rising market odds for the MASK token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and Perps Launch Fuel Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 71%21%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and MetaMask Perps in October 2025, alongside the discovery of a password-protected claim domain, sparked intense speculation about an upcoming token launch.
Speculation intensifies as new MetaMask domains hint at upcoming token claim portal
September 30 surges to 73%22%
The registration of domains like claim.metamask.io and gift.metamask.io sparked speculation about an imminent token airdrop or claim event. This development triggered a sharp rally in prediction market betting activity, significantly raising the perceived likelihood of a token launch by September 30.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based Rewards program
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards system allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This program was widely interpreted as a precursor to the MASK token airdrop, driving increased market optimism and price gains.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No official MetaMask token launch or public trading by mid-2026
June 30 drops to 0%5%
Despite earlier confirmations and preparations, the MASK token had not been officially launched or made publicly tradable by June 29, 2026, leading to a collapse in market probabilities for a 2025 or mid-2026 launch.
MetaMask token launch widely anticipated in Q3-Q4 2026, aligned with ConsenSys IPO
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
Market analysis and credible reports indicate the most realistic launch window for the MetaMask $MASK token is Q3 to Q4 2026, potentially timed with the ConsenSys IPO. This pushed market probabilities lower for earlier launch dates within the analysis window.
No official MetaMask token launch by mid-2026, market confidence near zero
June 30 drops to 1%6%
By mid-2026, MetaMask had not officially launched a publicly transferable and tradable token, leading to market prices for token launch by June 30 and September 30 dropping to near zero, reflecting consensus that the token launch will not occur by these dates.
Market consensus shifts to expecting MetaMask token launch in late 2026 or beyond
By mid-2026, market prices for all resolution dates had dropped significantly, reflecting consensus that the $MASK token launch would not occur by the end of 2025 or mid-2026. Analysts and community sentiment point to a realistic launch window in Q3-Q4 2026 or later.
No official MetaMask token launch by end of 2025 confirmed
As of mid-2026, no official announcement or evidence of a publicly tradable MetaMask token launch by December 31, 2025, has been made. Market prices for all 2025 launch outcomes have collapsed near zero, indicating consensus on a 'No' resolution for the 2025 deadline.
MetaMask Agent Wallet gains early access users and plans summer public launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped early access to 200 users for its AI Agent Wallet and announced a broader public launch planned for summer 2026, signaling product expansion but no token launch confirmation.
Phishing Scam Impersonates MetaMask MASK Token Allocation
A malicious email phishing campaign surfaced, falsely claiming the launch of the MASK token and attempting to steal users' wallet recovery phrases.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access with AI trading features
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%7%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities, expanding its ecosystem but without launching the $MASK token, reinforcing market sentiment that the token launch would not occur before mid-2026.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet enabling AI-powered DeFi trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%8%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, allowing AI frameworks to autonomously execute trades while users retain control. This product launch expanded MetaMask's ecosystem but did not include the $MASK token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty and price decline.
MetaMask Institutional Early Access Program opens for limited traders and developers
The launch of an Early Access Program for institutional users indicates ongoing platform development but no direct MASK token launch, sustaining market uncertainty.
MetaMask opens early access to Agent Wallet with 200 spots for AI-powered trading
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
MetaMask capped initial access to its Agent Wallet at 200 traders and developers, emphasizing security and control for AI-driven trading. This launch was a significant product milestone but did not include a token launch, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term token issuance.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-powered autonomous DeFi trading
On June 8, 2026, MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet, a self-custodial wallet designed for AI agents to autonomously execute trades and DeFi interactions under user-defined controls. This launch was significant for MetaMask's product expansion but did not involve launching a new token. The wallet supports multiple EVM chains and includes security features like transaction simulation and threat scanning.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet for AI-driven autonomous DeFi trading in early access
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%2%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, a CLI-first product allowing AI agents to trade autonomously with user-defined controls. This innovation expanded MetaMask's product suite but did not constitute a token launch, contributing to continued market decline in token launch probability.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven autonomous trading while maintaining user control. This innovation reflects ongoing platform development but does not indicate a MASK token launch, coinciding with low market probabilities for a token launch by June 30, 2026.
MetaMask emphasizes security in AI Agent Wallet launch with transaction protection
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask highlighted security features including transaction simulation and up to $10,000 coverage for safe transactions in the AI Agent Wallet, reinforcing user trust but unrelated to MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet with AI trading capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet enabling AI-driven DeFi trading, showcasing ongoing innovation but with no MASK token launch, maintaining low market probabilities for token release by mid-2026.
MetaMask CEO confirms $MASK token launch expected in near future
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token launch is expected soon, likely aligned with a ConsenSys IPO in late 2026. This statement reinforced market expectations for a later launch rather than before June 30, 2026.
MetaMask Agent Wallet launches early access for advanced trading
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched early access for its Agent Wallet, enabling advanced trading features and signaling ongoing product development but no $MASK token launch yet, maintaining market uncertainty about timing.
MetaMask launches AI Agent Wallet in early access for 200 users
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
MetaMask introduced the Agent Wallet, enabling AI-driven crypto trading with built-in security features, showcasing product innovation but not signaling a MASK token launch, coinciding with a slight price decline in token launch probabilities.
MetaMask launches Agent Wallet early access, no MASK token launch
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask launched the Agent Wallet early access program aimed at advanced users, but no MASK token was launched, indicating the token launch remains pending and market confidence remains low for a 2026 mid-year launch.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet for AI-Powered DeFi Trading
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MetaMask introduced its self-custodial Agent Wallet in early access, allowing autonomous AI software to execute trades and manage capital within user-defined rules.
MetaMask Launches Agent Wallet in Early Access
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask introduced its Agent Wallet for AI-driven trading. While showcasing product innovation, the release did not signal any progress toward a native MASK token generation event.
MetaMask USD stablecoin (mUSD) maintains stable $1 price
MetaMask's own stablecoin, mUSD, launched in September 2025, continued to trade steadily at $1, demonstrating MetaMask's expanding token ecosystem. This stablecoin is distinct from the MASK token and does not indicate a MASK token launch.
MetaMask USD (mUSD) price reaches $1 per token
June 30 dips to 2%2%
The price of MetaMask USD (mUSD) was confirmed at $1 per token on June 4, 2026, solidifying its status as a stablecoin and a publicly tradable token.
No official MASK token launch by mid-2026, market odds decline sharply
June 30 drops to 1%6%
By mid-2026, no official launch of the MASK token had occurred, leading to a sharp decline in market probabilities for token launch by June 30 and September 30, reflecting growing skepticism about a 2025 or early 2026 launch.
MetaMask integrates stablecoin and expands ecosystem ahead of token launch
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
MetaMask integrated the mUSD stablecoin and expanded features like the Linea network, signaling ecosystem growth in preparation for the MASK token launch. However, the token remained unreleased, keeping market prices low.
MetaMask joins Open Transaction Layer initiative to standardize on-chain financial transactions
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
MetaMask partnered with major firms to launch the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), aiming to standardize on-chain transaction coordination. This strategic move enhanced MetaMask's infrastructure role but did not involve a token launch, influencing market sentiment downward.
Open Transaction Layer (OTL) launches with MetaMask as a founding member
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%1%
MetaMask joined Fireblocks, Robinhood, and others to launch OTL, a protocol to standardize on-chain financial transactions, enhancing MetaMask's infrastructure role but not directly affecting token launch timing.
MetaMask, Robinhood, and Fireblocks Launch Open Transaction Layer
A coalition of major financial and crypto firms launched the Open Transaction Layer (OTL) to standardize on-chain financial transactions and enable access to tokenized equities.
Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)
June 30 dips to 2%3%
MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.
Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%
Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.
MetaMask launches US payment card with onchain rewards via Mastercard partnership
MetaMask expanded its product ecosystem with a US payment card offering onchain rewards, enhancing user engagement but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
ConsenSys clarifies MetaMask does not collect taxes on crypto transactions amid rumors
ConsenSys publicly refuted misinformation about MetaMask collecting taxes on crypto transactions, maintaining user trust but not impacting the token launch timeline or market prices significantly.
npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%
Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.
Consensys delays $7B IPO to fall 2026
Consensys postponed its planned IPO to fall 2026, likely delaying the $MASK token launch which is expected to coincide with the IPO, reducing near-term token launch probability.
Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunched with new features and benefits
December 31, 2026 surges to 52%19%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges, airdrops, and a new Benefits tab, signaling ongoing preparation for the MASK token launch and continued user engagement. This sustained market interest in the token's eventual release.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with Benefits Tab but No Native Token
June 30 dips to 8%1%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner airdrops, but still without any native MASK token, keeping near-term launch probabilities extremely low.
MetaMask Rewards Program Returns with New Benefits Tab
MetaMask updated its Rewards program, introducing trading challenges, airdrops, and a new Benefits tab powered by theMiracle to surface perks and token allocations.
MetaMask Rewards relaunches with new challenges and benefits tab
MetaMask Rewards program resumed with new features, indicating ongoing ecosystem development but no immediate $MASK token launch, keeping market expectations for a 2026 launch alive.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 begins, points carry over for future MASK token allocation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
MetaMask launched Season 2 of its Rewards program, continuing point accumulation that is expected to factor into the eventual MASK token distribution, signaling a delayed but ongoing launch process.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new challenges and token allocation benefits
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%5%
In May 2026, MetaMask Rewards relaunched with new trading challenges and a Benefits tab showing token allocations, indicating ongoing preparation for the $MASK token launch but no actual token issuance yet, maintaining market uncertainty and low prices.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 launches with new challenges and token allocation perks
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program for Season 2, continuing to build user engagement and signaling ongoing preparation for the MASK token launch. However, no official token generation event occurred, contributing to declining market confidence in a near-term launch.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new features and token allocation perks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%9%
MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a Benefits tab, enhancing user engagement and hinting at upcoming MASK token allocations, sustaining market interest in the token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over from Season 1
December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%
Announcement of Season 2 of MetaMask Rewards with points carrying over from Season 1 indicated ongoing preparation for token distribution but no official token launch yet, causing some price fluctuations.
MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with New Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%12%
MetaMask revived its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner token allocations, but did not announce its own native token, keeping the launch timeline speculative.
MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab and Partner Airdrops
June 30 dips to 5%3%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without launching its own native token, reinforcing expectations of a delayed token launch.
MetaMask Rewards returns with new Benefits tab, no token announced
June 30 dips to 1%4%
MetaMask announced the return of the Rewards program (new Benefits tab) without any token launch, reinforcing traders’ view that the token was still not imminent; the June‑30 probability fell to the 1‑% range by June 11.
MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and Benefits Tab
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%7%
MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with new trading challenges and a Benefits tab. The continuation of points farming rather than a token launch pushed expectations further out into late 2026.
MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay departs ConsenSys
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Dan Finlay, co-founder of MetaMask, announced his departure from ConsenSys, raising concerns about the project's future and contributing to market skepticism about the imminent token launch.
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay announces departure after 10 years
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Dan Finlay's exit marked a significant leadership change during a critical period of MetaMask's evolution and token launch preparations, possibly impacting project momentum.
Consensys prepares 2026 IPO, signaling shift away from immediate token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%16%
Consensys filed for a 2026 IPO, shifting investor focus to equity financing rather than a native token, which nudged the December‑31‑2026 probability down from 44 % in early May to 28 % by June 11.
Societe Generale Expands USD Stablecoin Access to MetaMask Users
June 30 rises to 9%1%
Societe Generale-FORGE made its USD CoinVertible (EUR/USD) stablecoin available on MetaMask through a partnership with Consensys, expanding institutional digital money access.
Societe Generale expands USD stablecoin access to MetaMask users
Societe Generale-FORGE partnered with ConsenSys to make its USD CoinVertible token available on MetaMask, increasing MetaMask's ecosystem utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch anticipation.
SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask
Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.
MetaMask expands trading with tokenized stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance integration
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
MetaMask enabled trading of 264 tokenized stocks and ETFs directly inside its wallet, expanding its DeFi offerings but not launching a native token. This development increased platform utility but did not fulfill token launch criteria, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new trading challenges and airdrops
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%6%
MetaMask Rewards returned with new features including trading challenges and token allocations, enhancing user engagement but not signaling a full token launch. This maintained interest in the MASK token but did not confirm tradability.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends with $30 million in Linea token distributions
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%2%
MetaMask concluded its first Rewards season distributing $LINEA tokens and other perks, signaling ongoing token-related activity but not a $MASK token launch. This event maintained interest but did not confirm a tradable $MASK token.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or public trading by early April 2026
June 30 drops to 7%7%
By April 2026, despite strong community anticipation and ongoing rewards programs, MetaMask had not officially launched the $MASK token or enabled public trading, leading to a significant decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 launch.
Linea Shifts to Sustainable LINEA Token Model and Launches Yield Boost
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Linea transitioned from its temporary points system to the sustainable LINEA token, integrating it with the MetaMask Card. This shift further confirmed that Consensys was prioritizing the LINEA ecosystem over an immediate MASK token launch, keeping June 30 odds near zero.
MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout
December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.
MetaMask CEO reiterates MASK token launch is imminent, but no launch yet
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%15%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MASK token launch is imminent, but no active launch or tradable token appeared. This caused a temporary price spike due to renewed optimism, followed by declines as the launch did not materialize.
MetaMask Rewards Season 2 announced, points carry over for future token allocation
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%27%
MetaMask announced Season 2 of its Rewards program, with points from Season 1 carrying over and expected to factor into the future MASK token allocation. This signaled ongoing preparation but no immediate token launch, causing mixed market reactions.
MetaMask launches official $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallets
MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens through the official portal. This confirmed the token's existence and decentralized governance intent but occurred after the 2025 resolution date, impacting market prices negatively for earlier outcomes.
MetaMask confirms no official $MASK token claim portal live as of March 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%11%
MetaMask and ConsenSys clarified that no official $MASK token claim portal was live, warning users about phishing scams, which dampened short-term launch expectations and caused market price declines.
ConsenSys legal victory over SEC clears regulatory path for MetaMask token
December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%13%
ConsenSys won a critical legal battle against the SEC, removing a major regulatory obstacle for the MASK token launch. Despite this, the token was still not launched by mid-2026, reflecting ongoing cautious execution.
MetaMask officially launches $MASK token airdrop for eligible users
MetaMask launched the $MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible wallet holders to claim tokens via an official portal. This event marks the actual launch of the $MASK token, fulfilling the market's resolution criteria for the token launch event.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible users
December 31, 2026 surges to 56%18%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible users to claim tokens and marking the actual token launch event, which was a critical milestone for market resolution.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop announced for eligible users
December 31, 2026 surges to 54%15%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop for eligible users active before March 2026, marking the first public distribution of the token and validating the token's existence and tradability.
MetaMask MASK token airdrop officially launches for eligible wallets
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
MetaMask officially launched the MASK token airdrop, allowing eligible users to claim tokens based on prior activity. This event marked the actual token launch, confirming the market's eventual resolution to 'No' for earlier 2025 and 2026 dates but supporting a later launch timeline.
MASK token airdrop officially launches for eligible MetaMask wallets
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
MetaMask began distributing MASK tokens via an official airdrop portal to eligible users based on on-chain activity, marking the first public availability of the token but not a full tradable launch, causing some market reaction.
MetaMask hints at early‑2026 Card rollout, no token news
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask posted a brief update that the upcoming MetaMask Card would launch in early 2026, but offered no token‑related news. The market interpreted the silence as further delay, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds down to 32 % on 2026‑03‑10.
Consensys CEO says MetaMask token may arrive sooner than expected
June 30 dips to 9%4%
Consensys CEO Joe Lubin, in an interview with The Block, reiterated that the token could still arrive “sooner than expected,” but gave no concrete timeline. The lack of a firm date caused further price decay for all three outcomes, especially the June‑30 market that dropped to 5 % by late May.
No official MetaMask $MASK token launch or claim portal opened by early 2026
June 30 drops to 1%13%
Despite ongoing speculation and points accumulation in the Rewards program, no official $MASK token generation event or public trading launch occurred by early 2026, causing market probabilities to decline sharply.
Consensys prepares for 2026 IPO, influencing MASK token launch timing
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Consensys's plans for a 2026 IPO created strategic considerations for the timing of the MASK token launch, as launching before or after the IPO could have regulatory and market implications. This uncertainty kept market probabilities low for a 2025 launch.
No official MetaMask token launch or airdrop by early 2026, market confidence declines
June 30 plunges to 0%22%
Despite earlier signals, no official token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, leading to a significant drop in market prices and shifting expectations to a later launch window in Q3-Q4 2026.
MetaMask Parent Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%10%
Reports emerged that Consensys is planning a Wall Street IPO for 2026, shifting the company's focus toward traditional equity markets and potentially delaying the native token launch.
No official $MASK token generation event or public trading by end of 2025
September 30 plunges to 5%48%
Despite strong signals and community anticipation, MetaMask did not launch a publicly tradable $MASK token by December 31, 2025, causing market prices for the 2025 launch outcome to collapse sharply.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%1%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards. The lack of a token launch announcement pushed expectations further out, causing the December 31, 2026 option to drop.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window as Focus Shifts to Future Seasons
September 30 drops to 18%11%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming that the immediate distribution phase was over without any MASK token launch, further depressing early 2026 launch odds.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 9%10%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without a MASK token launch, reinforcing market doubts about a 2025 or early 2026 launch and contributing to falling market probabilities.
MetaMask announces Season 2 of Rewards program, no MASK token launch yet
June 30 drops to 14%13%
MetaMask confirmed that Season 2 of its Rewards program is coming soon, continuing the points-based system but without launching the MASK token, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed token launch beyond early 2026.
MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 claim window closes, no MASK token launched
September 30 dips to 18%1%
The claim window for Season 1 rewards closed without any MASK token distribution, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2025 launch and causing further price declines across all resolution dates.
MetaMask expands wallet features with tokenized stocks and Bitcoin support
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%22%
MetaMask integrated tokenized US stocks via Ondo Finance and launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its ecosystem but not directly advancing the MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.
SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys dismissed, clearing regulatory hurdle
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
The SEC dismissed its lawsuit against ConsenSys regarding MetaMask's staking and swap features, removing a major regulatory risk and enabling progress toward the MASK token launch, positively impacting market sentiment.
SEC dismisses lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask services
June 30 drops to 14%8%
The U.S. SEC announced dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask’s staking and swap features, removing a regulatory cloud but also resetting expectations for a token launch, which slid the June‑30 probability to single‑digit levels.
Consensys announces MetaMask token launch expected in near future amid IPO plans
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Consensys, MetaMask's parent company, announced plans for a 2026 IPO and reiterated that the long-anticipated $MASK token would launch soon. This announcement briefly increased market optimism but did not result in an immediate token launch, causing mixed market reactions.
MetaMask announces upcoming Season 2 of Rewards program
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%11%
MetaMask confirmed that Season 2 of the Rewards program was coming soon, continuing the points system that is expected to tie into the MASK token airdrop. However, no official token launch date was provided, maintaining uncertainty and contributing to declining market prices.
MetaMask officially closes Season 1 claim window for Linea rewards
June 30 dips to 13%1%
The closing of the claim window for Season 1 rewards marked the end of the initial phase of user incentives, with no MASK token launch yet, contributing to further market price declines for early launch dates.
Consensys plans 2026 IPO, $MASK token launch anticipated in Q3-Q4 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, with the $MASK token launch widely anticipated to coincide with this event in the latter half of 2026, pushing market expectations for a 2025 launch further out and depressing prices for earlier resolution dates.
MetaMask closes Season 1 rewards, announces Season 2 coming soon
MetaMask ended its first rewards season distributing LINEA tokens and announced an upcoming Season 2, which is expected to integrate the MASK token. This prolonged anticipation but the lack of a token launch by this time contributed to declining market confidence for a 2025 launch.
Polymarket Odds for MetaMask Token Launch Drop Sharply
September 30 plunges to 34%29%
Following the end of Season 1 and lack of official token generation event, prediction market odds for a MetaMask token launch by September 30, 2026, dropped significantly, reflecting growing market skepticism about an imminent launch.
Market sentiment shifts to delay in MetaMask token launch
June 30 drops to 13%9%
Analyses and reports highlighted regulatory uncertainties, market downturns, and lack of official token generation event signals, leading to a sharp decline in market odds for a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
Consensys Taps Wall Street for 2026 IPO, Shifting Token Expectations to Late 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
Reports of Consensys planning a 2026 IPO aligned the expected MASK token launch timeline with late 2026, causing earlier target dates to lose probability while December 31, 2026 experienced volatile adjustments.
Consensys SEC Lawsuit Dismissal De-Risks Regulatory Path
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%29%
The SEC's formal dismissal of its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask's staking features provided critical regulatory relief, clearing a major legal hurdle for any future token launch.
MetaMask Token Launch Expectations Shift Out to Late 2026 Following Season 1 Close
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
With Season 1 claims closed and no MASK token in sight, the December 31, 2026, market bottomed out at 24% before stabilizing as the most realistic remaining window.
Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.
MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%
On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.
MetaMask integrates tokenized stocks via Ondo Finance, expanding asset offerings
December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%25%
MetaMask broadened its platform by supporting tokenized stocks through Ondo Finance integration, signaling a strategic focus on multi-asset access rather than immediate MASK token launch. This shift contributed to declining market confidence in a near-term MASK token launch.
MetaMask Card Launches in the US in Partnership with Mastercard
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US, shifting focus toward product utility rather than immediate token generation.
MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance for Tokenized Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%
MetaMask expanded its platform utility by supporting tokenized traditional assets like Apple and Microsoft shares, shifting focus toward product expansion rather than a token launch.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%22%
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by integrating tokenized US stocks and ETFs through Ondo Finance, broadening its financial offerings but not directly related to the MASK token launch. This development showed MetaMask's growth but did not accelerate token issuance.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized U.S. Stocks
June 30 rises to 14%1%
MetaMask launched an integration with Ondo Finance to allow non-U.S. users to trade over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs directly inside the mobile wallet.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
MetaMask expanded its offerings by enabling access to tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities through Ondo Finance, broadening its financial ecosystem. This move signaled MetaMask's evolution beyond a simple wallet, but did not directly impact the token launch timeline.
MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
MetaMask launched support for trading tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance. While expanding DeFi utility, it confirmed that Consensys was still only considering a native token with no official launch date.
MetaMask integrates 200+ tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo
MetaMask expanded wallet functionality by integrating tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing user offerings but unrelated to the $MASK token launch timing.
MetaMask integrates tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo Global Markets
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by integrating access to over 200 tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities, enhancing its role as a unified digital finance platform. This expansion reflects MetaMask's growing ecosystem but does not directly indicate a $MASK token launch.
MetaMask integrates Ondo to offer tokenized U.S. stocks inside wallet
MetaMask expanded its offerings by enabling users to trade tokenized U.S. securities, enhancing platform utility but not directly related to MASK token launch, reflecting broader ecosystem growth.
MetaMask adds tokenized US stocks and ETFs via Ondo integration
MetaMask integrated tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities through Ondo Global Markets, expanding its financial offerings and user base. This move demonstrated MetaMask's growing ecosystem but did not directly indicate a MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask Integrates Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs via Ondo Finance
September 30 drops to 21%13%
MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by adding support for tokenized traditional assets, shifting focus toward product utility rather than an immediate native token launch.
Consensys plans 2026 IPO, adding uncertainty to token launch timing
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, which could affect the timing of the MetaMask token launch as the company balances regulatory and market considerations, leading to cautious market sentiment and price declines.
MetaMask Points Program Season 1 ends with no MASK token generation event
December 31, 2026 plunges to 40%26%
The conclusion of the first MetaMask Rewards season ended without a token generation event, disappointing users and signaling that the MASK token launch would not occur in 2025. This contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for a 2025 launch.
MetaMask claim portal redirects to homepage, no token materializes
June 30 drops to 17%5%
The claims.metamask.io portal, initially password-protected, began redirecting users to MetaMask's homepage without any token distribution, confirming delays and causing further market price drops.
MetaMask announces continuation of rewards program, signaling delayed MASK token launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
MetaMask announced Season 2 of its rewards program, indicating that the MASK token launch was postponed beyond 2025. This announcement further reduced market confidence in a near-term token launch.
Consensys files for 2026 IPO, signaling strategic timing for MetaMask token launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
Consensys announced plans for a 2026 IPO, which may influence the timing of the MetaMask token launch due to regulatory and strategic considerations. This development contributed to market skepticism about a 2025 or early 2026 token launch.
No official MetaMask token launch or airdrop announced by early 2026
September 30 plunges to 6%28%
By early 2026, despite ongoing speculation and market anticipation, MetaMask had not launched a tradable token or announced a token generation event, causing market prices for a 2025 launch to collapse and shift expectations to later dates.
No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026
Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.
Market sentiment declines as no $MASK token launch occurs by early 2026
June 30 plunges to 15%17%
Despite earlier confirmations and infrastructure signals, no official $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by early 2026, causing market prices for token launch by June and September 2026 to fall sharply. The delay reflects regulatory caution and strategic timing considerations by ConsenSys.
SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys dismissed, reducing regulatory risk for token launch
The dismissal of the SEC lawsuit against ConsenSys over MetaMask staking features removed a major regulatory hurdle, improving the outlook for a future MASK token launch and influencing market sentiment positively.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal by SEC clears regulatory uncertainty
In early 2026, the SEC dismissed its lawsuit against Consensys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risk but no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market uncertainty.
No $MASK token claim portal materializes; claims.metamask.io redirects to homepage
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Despite earlier signals, the expected $MASK token claim portal did not launch; the domain redirected to MetaMask's homepage, increasing skepticism about a near-term token launch and causing market prices to fall further.
Consensys lawsuit dismissal reduces regulatory uncertainty for MetaMask token
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%6%
The SEC dismissed its lawsuit against ConsenSys regarding MetaMask's staking features, reducing regulatory risks and potentially clearing the way for the MASK token launch. However, no immediate token launch followed, maintaining market caution.
No MetaMask token launch by end of January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 6%19%
Despite earlier confirmations and the Rewards program, no $MASK token launch or airdrop occurred by late January 2026. This delay led to a significant drop in market odds, reflecting skepticism about a 2025 launch and shifting expectations to later in 2026.
No MetaMask token launch or airdrop by late January 2026, causing market decline
September 30 plunges to 9%23%
Despite earlier optimism, by late January 2026 no $MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, revealing regulatory and strategic delays, which led to a sharp decline in market prices for token launch probability.
No MASK token launch or airdrop by late January 2026 despite prior signals
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%9%
By late January 2026, no official MASK token launch or airdrop had occurred, despite earlier confirmations and community anticipation. This delay reflected regulatory caution and strategic timing related to Consensys's IPO plans, leading to declining market probabilities.
Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.
Market Analysis Highlights Regulatory and IPO Pressures Delaying MASK Token
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Reports highlighted that Consensys's planned mid-2026 IPO and regulatory scrutiny during the pre-IPO quiet period were delaying the MASK token launch, pushing expectations to late 2026.
Analysis highlights delay in MetaMask token launch amid regulatory and strategic tensions
June 30 drops to 12%9%
A detailed analysis revealed that despite strong anticipation, the MetaMask token launch was delayed due to regulatory strategy and a planned ConsenSys IPO. This explained the absence of a tradable token by early 2026 and contributed to further market price declines.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends; claim window closes
The first season of MetaMask Rewards ended, closing the claim window for $LINEA tokens. This marked the completion of a key phase in the token launch preparation, with points expected to carry over to Season 2 and influence $MASK token allocation.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Closes Without Token Launch
June 30 drops to 11%7%
The first season of the MetaMask Points Program officially concluded on January 23, 2026. The lack of an immediate token generation event or airdrop announcement led to a sharp decline in the probability of a June 30 launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Ends, Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
June 30 drops to 11%7%
The first season of MetaMask Rewards concluded on January 23, 2026, distributing LINEA tokens rather than the native MASK token. This disappointed users and signaled that a native token launch was not imminent, causing the June 30 and September 30 probabilities to drop.
MetaMask Concludes Rewards Season 1 with LINEA Distribution, Sparking User Disappointment
September 30 drops to 32%12%
MetaMask officially ended Season 1 of its Rewards program on January 23, 2026, distributing LINEA tokens instead of the native MASK token. This lack of MASK rewards severely damaged near-term launch expectations, causing the September 30 odds to drop sharply.
MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch
June 30 plunges to 13%65%
MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, closing initial points accumulation phase
The conclusion of the first Rewards season provided data for finalizing tokenomics and airdrop eligibility, but no token launch followed, tempering market expectations.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Concludes with Linea Token Distribution but No Native MASK Token
June 30 plunges to 14%46%
The first season of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing over $30 million in $LINEA tokens instead of the highly anticipated native $MASK token, causing a sharp decline in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge
September 30 drops to 65%12%
The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.
MetaMask announces end of Rewards Season 1 with mixed user sentiment
September 30 drops to 59%10%
Season 1 of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing rewards mainly in $LINEA tokens rather than $MASK. User sentiment was negative due to lack of direct $MASK rewards, leading to declining market confidence in a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Closes Rewards Season 1 Distributing LINEA Tokens Instead of MASK
September 30 plunges to 41%19%
MetaMask officially concluded Season 1 of its Rewards program, distributing LINEA tokens and other perks instead of launching its own native MASK token. The lack of a native token generation event disappointed speculative users and depressed early 2026 launch odds.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms $MASK token launch coming sooner than expected
September 30 drops to 68%10%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed that the long-anticipated MetaMask $MASK token would launch in the near future, sparking excitement and increasing market expectations for a 2026 launch.
Traders Reassess Near-Term Launch Odds as Season 1 Nears End Without MASK Token Signals
June 30 plunges to 32%20%
As MetaMask Rewards Season 1 progressed without any official signals of a MASK token generation event, traders began heavily discounting the June 30, 2026, outcome.
MetaMask says token still under development, no launch date set
September 30 drops to 71%7%
MetaMask’s official X account reiterated that the token was still “in development” with no launch date, causing the market’s confidence in a 2025 launch to erode sharply; the September‑30 probability fell below 60 % by early January 2026.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support after 10-month wait
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, expanding its multichain wallet capabilities and enhancing user experience, but this did not include launching a native token.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 dips to 54%4%
MetaMask integrated native Bitcoin support, continuing its transition into a comprehensive multichain wallet.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support, enhancing wallet utility
MetaMask launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and trade BTC directly, increasing wallet utility and user engagement, indirectly supporting token launch anticipation.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multichain Wallet
September 30 rises to 78%4%
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to buy, send, receive, and swap BTC directly. Swaps into BTC earn users rewards points, further paving the way for the native token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support expanding multi-chain capabilities
September 30 plunges to 50%17%
MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This expansion of utility increased MetaMask's ecosystem value but did not directly indicate a MASK token launch, contributing to market uncertainty.
MetaMask launches full native Bitcoin support
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly within the wallet. This expansion of multi-chain capabilities enhanced MetaMask's ecosystem and user engagement, indirectly supporting the token launch narrative.
MetaMask Introduces Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Multi-Chain Capabilities
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly inside the wallet, boosting product utility and engagement metrics ahead of potential tokenization.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support, Expanding Beyond Ethereum Ecosystem
June 30 drops to 59%8%
MetaMask officially rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly. This major product update shifted focus toward multi-chain utility rather than an immediate token launch.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by launching native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade BTC directly and earn reward points, keeping the ecosystem highly active.
MetaMask officially launches native Bitcoin support, expanding multichain capabilities
MetaMask rolled out native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, and swap BTC directly in-app, enhancing its ecosystem and rewards program. While this was a major product milestone, it did not include a token launch, contributing to continued market uncertainty about the token's arrival in 2025.
MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support
MetaMask rolled out native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to manage BTC directly. Swapping BTC natively earned users points in the Rewards program, further driving engagement.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support in wallet
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly in the wallet, enhancing its multi-chain capabilities but not directly related to the token launch, causing minor market fluctuations.
MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support, expanding wallet capabilities
MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, signaling a shift towards a multichain wallet but not directly related to the token launch, which may have distracted market focus from the token event.
MetaMask Expands Support to Bitcoin and Integrates Rewards Points
MetaMask officially added support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade and manage BTC in-wallet while earning reward points ahead of its planned native token launch.
MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support
June 30 plunges to 57%20%
MetaMask announced native Bitcoin support, expanding the wallet’s product roadmap. Analysts interpreted the move as a shift of engineering resources away from a token launch, which helped explain the sharp drop in the “June 30” odds from 77 % (early Nov 2025) to 57 % by 2025‑12‑31.
MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points
September 30 jumps to 77%6%
MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Enable In-App Prediction Markets
September 30 plunges to 69%15%
MetaMask launched prediction markets directly within its mobile app through an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, allowing users to earn rewards points tied to its planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Prediction Markets
June 30 drops to 54%6%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket, expanding its in-wallet features and rewards program.
MetaMask integrates Polymarket prediction markets natively in wallet
MetaMask launched native integration with Polymarket, allowing users to trade prediction markets directly within the wallet. This expansion of features increased user engagement and reinforced MetaMask's evolution into a comprehensive DeFi platform, indirectly supporting token launch expectations.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Natively Into Mobile App
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
MetaMask rolled out native prediction markets powered by Polymarket directly inside its mobile app, charging a 4% fee and offering rewards points, which further expanded the wallet's ecosystem utility.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket for Native Mobile Prediction Markets
September 30 rises to 70%4%
MetaMask launched native prediction market trading powered by Polymarket directly inside its mobile app. The integration included rewards points connected to the upcoming token launch, reinforcing utility expectations.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket Trading with Rewards Points Incentive
June 30 drops to 57%7%
MetaMask launched an in-wallet integration with prediction market platform Polymarket, charging a 4% fee but offering users 2 rewards points per dollar traded. This integration expanded wallet utility and tied directly into the points program paving the way for the planned token launch.
MetaMask Integrates Polymarket to Launch Prediction Markets Directly in Wallet
June 30 drops to 59%7%
MetaMask partnered with Polymarket to allow users to trade prediction markets directly inside the wallet, fueling speculation that the upcoming token would tie these new financial products together.
MetaMask Integrates Native Prediction Markets Powered by Polymarket
June 30 drops to 57%9%
MetaMask integrated Polymarket natively into its mobile app, introducing a 4% transaction fee but offering points rewards linked to a future token launch, which temporarily shifted focus to product utility.
MetaMask launches $9.99/month Wallet Protection service
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
MetaMask introduced a wallet protection service enhancing security but unrelated directly to the token launch. This launch coincided with a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting waning confidence in a token launch by year-end.
Market resolves 'No' as MetaMask fails to launch token by December 31, 2025
December 31, 2026 plunges to 24%26%
The market officially resolved to 'No' after MetaMask did not launch an actively tradable token by the deadline, confirming the market's declining confidence and resulting in sharp price drops across all outcomes.
Phishing Domain Mimicking MetaMask Registered Amid Growing Token Speculation
September 30 dips to 85%2%
A deceptive domain, metamask.io-token.vip, was registered to target MetaMask users, highlighting the intense community anticipation and vulnerability to scams surrounding the rumored token launch.
ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin discusses upcoming MetaMask token
On November 17, 2025, Joseph Lubin, ConsenSys CEO, publicly discussed the forthcoming MetaMask token in an interview, reinforcing the token launch narrative and supporting sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
Consensys CEO discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum's future on The Block, reinforcing the token's imminent launch and its importance to the ecosystem, sustaining high market confidence.
Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discusses MetaMask token and Ethereum ecosystem growth
In an interview, Joseph Lubin elaborated on the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in decentralizing the platform. This public discussion by a key figure reinforced the legitimacy and imminence of the token launch, supporting sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
Joseph Lubin discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
In an interview, Consensys founder Joseph Lubin discussed the future MetaMask token and its role in decentralizing the platform, providing further official confirmation and sustaining market optimism.
Consensys founder discusses MetaMask token and ecosystem growth
Joseph Lubin, Consensys founder, discussed the upcoming MetaMask token and its role in Ethereum ecosystem growth, providing further confirmation and positive sentiment about the token launch prospects.
MetaMask trading volume surges 75% amid growing DeFi adoption
MetaMask reported a 75% increase in trading volume, reflecting heightened user engagement and confidence in the platform's growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, reinforcing bullish sentiment for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 jumps to 90%12%
On November 15, 2025, reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news significantly boosted market confidence, pushing the September 30 outcome price to a high of 90% on November 7 and sustaining elevated levels thereafter.
Reports highlight MetaMask preparing to launch highly anticipated MASK token
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Reports emerged that MetaMask is preparing to launch the MASK token, expected to be one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, with potential distribution worth billions, driving strong market enthusiasm and price increases.
MetaMask prepares for MASK token launch with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 rises to 90%3%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation for the highly anticipated MASK token launch, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news further increased market optimism and prices.
MetaMask token launch valuation and market excitement rise
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation to launch the highly anticipated $MASK token, estimating a potential $12 billion fully diluted valuation and one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news sustained high market optimism and price levels for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask prepares for major MASK token launch with $2.4 billion distribution estimate
Reports emerged estimating that MetaMask could distribute up to $2.4 billion worth of MASK tokens, making it one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news intensified market excitement and confidence in the token launch by year-end, reflected in sustained high prices for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask USD stablecoin launches on Ethereum and Linea
September 30 dips to 85%2%
MetaMask announced and launched its native stablecoin, MetaMask USD (mUSD), integrated into its ecosystem, signaling expansion of MetaMask's financial offerings but not a direct token launch, which tempered market enthusiasm.
MetaMask prepares to launch MASK token with massive airdrop
September 30 surges to 90%16%
Reports emerged that MetaMask is preparing to launch its highly anticipated MASK token, with expectations of one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. This news heightened excitement and speculation, driving the market odds for a token launch higher.
MetaMask prepares for highly anticipated MASK token launch with $12 billion valuation potential
September 30 jumps to 87%13%
Reports highlighted MetaMask's preparation for the MASK token launch, estimating a large-scale airdrop and significant valuation. This news intensified market excitement and contributed to sustained high prices for the September 30 and June 30 outcomes.
MetaMask prepares for token launch amid Consensys IPO plans
September 30 dips to 87%1%
MetaMask announced a new rewards program and Consensys filed for an IPO, suggesting strategic alignment between public company growth and the upcoming MASK token launch, which increased market optimism.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based Rewards program
MetaMask launched a points-based rewards system allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, signaling progress toward the MASK token launch and sustaining market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask releases Multichain Accounts feature simplifying crosschain experience
MetaMask introduced Multichain Accounts, enhancing user experience across multiple blockchains and signaling ongoing ecosystem development, which supported sustained market optimism for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask announces Multichain Accounts feature enhancing user experience
MetaMask released a major update simplifying crosschain experience with Multichain Accounts, signaling ongoing ecosystem development and maintaining user engagement ahead of the token launch. This contributed to sustained high prices for the September 30 outcome.
Consensys CEO reiterates imminent MetaMask token launch
September 30 rises to 87%1%
Joseph Lubin reiterated that the MetaMask MASK token launch is imminent, reinforcing market expectations. This statement helped sustain high prediction market prices for a token launch by September 30 and June 30, 2025.
MetaMask expands tokenized US stocks trading via Ondo integration
September 30 rises to 87%1%
MetaMask integrated Ondo Finance to offer tokenized US stocks, ETFs, and commodities trading, broadening its ecosystem and increasing anticipation for the MASK token as part of its expanding DeFi offerings.
MetaMask launches Bridge Aggregator feature to enhance cross-chain asset transfers
MetaMask introduced a new bridge aggregator feature to improve user experience in moving assets across blockchains, demonstrating ongoing platform development but unrelated directly to the MASK token launch. This helped maintain user engagement but did not significantly affect token launch market prices.
MetaMask Rewards Program and Domain Discoveries Fuel Near-Term Token Launch Speculation
September 30 jumps to 88%14%
Following the launch of MetaMask Rewards and the discovery of the claim.metamask.io domain, traders bid up the probability of a token launch by September 30, 2026, to its peak of 90%.
Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation
September 30 surges to 90%39%
Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.
MetaMask Rewards program activity spikes amid token launch speculation
September 30 surges to 78%27%
Following the launch of the Rewards program and clarifications, user activity increased significantly, reflected in market price jumps for the September 30 outcome. This surge indicated growing belief in an imminent token launch and airdrop, driving prices from 51% to 78% within days.
Market Prices Surge on Speculation of Imminent MetaMask Token Launch
September 30 surges to 73%22%
On November 5, 2025, the market saw a sharp increase in prices for the September 30 and June 30 token launch outcomes, reflecting heightened speculation and rumors of an imminent MetaMask token launch. This surge was likely driven by unconfirmed reports and increased market chatter, pushing prices to new highs.
MetaMask integrates Polymarket prediction markets into mobile app
September 30 surges to 89%15%
MetaMask launched native prediction markets powered by Polymarket within its mobile wallet, enhancing user engagement and signaling the platform's evolution toward a token-driven economy, supporting token launch expectations.
MetaMask Launches $30 Million LINEA Token Rewards Program
September 30 surges to 72%19%
MetaMask announced the distribution of over $30 million in LINEA tokens through its rewards program. This concrete reward mechanism reinforced the expectation of a forthcoming native token launch, causing the September 30 outcome odds to surge.
MetaMask Users Express Disappointment Over LINEA Rewards Instead of MASK
September 30 surges to 72%19%
As the Rewards program progressed, community sentiment experienced a shift as users realized Season 1 distributed LINEA tokens rather than the highly anticipated MASK token, causing a temporary adjustment in near-term launch expectations.
MetaMask Co-Founder Dan Finlay Hints at Native Token Amid Regulatory Shifts
September 30 surges to 73%22%
MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay discussed the potential launch of a native token, noting that a more relaxed regulatory environment under the incoming administration makes a token issuance more feasible.
MetaMask launches $30 million LINEA rewards program
September 30 dips to 61%2%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program distributing LINEA tokens, seen as a precursor to the MASK token launch and a way to test reward distribution mechanisms, boosting market confidence in the token launch timeline.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask MASK token launch coming soon
September 30 surges to 74%23%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed that the MetaMask native token, MASK, is launching sooner than expected, reinforcing market optimism and causing a sharp price increase for the September 30 outcome.
MetaMask announces $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 74%23%
MetaMask unveiled a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens, distinct but related to the upcoming Token Generation Event. This substantial incentive program reinforced expectations of an imminent token launch, pushing market prices higher.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards and Token Generation Event are distinct but linked
September 30 rises to 87%1%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are separate but interconnected, reinforcing expectations of a MASK token launch and supporting market confidence.
MetaMask clarifies rewards program and Token Generation Event are distinct
June 30 jumps to 69%6%
On November 2, 2025, MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are separate but interconnected efforts, offering over $30 million in LINEA tokens for engagement. This reassured the market about the token launch plans, supporting price gains for both June 30 and September 30 outcomes.
MetaMask Clarifies Separation Between Rewards Program and Token Generation Event
June 30 plunges to 63%15%
MetaMask clarified that its newly launched Rewards program and the anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) are distinct initiatives. This clarification cooled down immediate expectations of a native token launch, causing a temporary drop in the June 30 outcome odds.
MetaMask launches $30 million Linea token rewards program
September 30 surges to 73%22%
MetaMask announced a $30 million rewards program in Linea tokens, distinct but related to the upcoming Token Generation Event. This program incentivized user engagement and was seen as a preparatory step toward the MASK token launch, boosting market confidence.
MetaMask clarifies distinction between rewards program and upcoming Token Generation Event
September 30 surges to 74%23%
MetaMask officially clarified that its rewards program and the upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) are separate but interconnected initiatives. This transparency reassured the market about the token launch timeline and structure, supporting further price increases.
MetaMask clarifies Rewards Program and Token Generation Event structure
September 30 jumps to 90%12%
MetaMask clarified that its Rewards Points Program and forthcoming Token Generation Event are distinct but interconnected, offering over $30 million in LINEA tokens for engagement. CEO Joseph Lubin emphasized the MASK token's role in decentralization, reinforcing confidence in the token launch timeline.
Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin confirms MetaMask token launch soon
June 30 surges to 75%25%
Joseph Lubin publicly confirmed on a podcast that the MetaMask MASK token is coming and may launch sooner than expected, signaling strong intent and increasing market confidence in a 2025 launch.
MetaMask expands multichain support including Bitcoin and launches perpetual futures trading
MetaMask expanded its wallet to support native Bitcoin transactions and launched perpetual futures trading, enhancing its ecosystem and increasing anticipation for the $MASK token launch.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This program was widely interpreted as a precursor to the token launch, significantly boosting market optimism and causing a sharp price rise in the June 30 outcome.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based rewards system
September 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity, fueling speculation about an imminent MASK token airdrop and driving market prices higher for June 30 and September 30 outcomes.
MetaMask launches points-based rewards system hinting at upcoming token
June 30 surges to 75%25%
In October 2025, MetaMask introduced its first-ever points-based rewards program allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This initiative increased market optimism about a forthcoming MASK token, driving up prices for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 75%.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 78%28%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.
Consensys hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for IPO, signaling growth and token launch
September 30 jumps to 89%10%
Consensys, MetaMask's parent company, hired major banks to advise on an IPO, coinciding with the token launch preparations. This move signaled strong institutional confidence and contributed to rising market odds for the MASK token launch.
MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and Perps Launch Fuel Token Speculation
June 30 surges to 71%21%
The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and MetaMask Perps in October 2025, alongside the discovery of a password-protected claim domain, sparked intense speculation about an upcoming token launch.
Speculation intensifies as new MetaMask domains hint at upcoming token claim portal
September 30 surges to 73%22%
The registration of domains like claim.metamask.io and gift.metamask.io sparked speculation about an imminent token airdrop or claim event. This development triggered a sharp rally in prediction market betting activity, significantly raising the perceived likelihood of a token launch by September 30.
MetaMask launches first-ever points-based Rewards program
June 30 surges to 75%25%
MetaMask introduced a points-based rewards system allowing users to earn perks and potential token allocations through wallet activity. This program was widely interpreted as a precursor to the MASK token airdrop, driving increased market optimism and price gains.
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