The Illinois House's April passage of a megaprojects bill offering property-tax certainty and relief for the Arlington Heights site has kept the Bears' relocation odds from tilting further toward Indiana, where Hammond remains a viable alternative. With the Senate now weighing the measure ahead of the late-May adjournment deadline, traders see a realistic path for the franchise to finalize an in-state deal before year-end. Recent statements from team president Kevin Warren and Governor Pritzker underscore that due diligence on both sites is nearing completion, but the domestic infrastructure commitments and economic-impact projections favor staying within Illinois borders. While a cross-state move is still possible if negotiations collapse, the current legislative momentum and the Bears' ownership stake in the Arlington Park land support the 58% implied probability that the team will not leave the state by December 31.