Recent US jobs data showing 165,000 October payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, widening the policy gap with the Bank of Japan’s 1.25% rate and supporting USD/JPY near 158. Trader positioning reflects this differential alongside BoJ signals for its own December move, keeping the pair range-bound between roughly 156 and 159.50. Japanese authorities have signaled heightened intervention risk above 160 following record yen defense spending, capping upside while safe-haven flows and equity volatility provide intermittent support. Key near-term catalysts include the November CPI release, the Fed’s December 9 decision, and the BoJ meeting on December 18, which will clarify whether the rate differential narrows enough to shift sentiment.