Norway's return to the FIFA World Cup after a 28-year absence, capped by an unbeaten qualifying campaign that included victories over Italy, underpins trader positioning around a Round of 32 or Round of 16 exit. The squad, anchored by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard under coach Ståle Solbakken, enters Group I alongside France, Senegal, and Iraq, a draw that tempers expectations despite Norway's attacking depth and recent form. Market consensus on early elimination reflects the competitive group stage environment and historical challenges for similar mid-tier European sides advancing deep, while lower probabilities for quarterfinals or beyond align with the "golden generation" narrative tempered by the expanded 48-team format's increased knockout variance. Recent squad announcements and pre-tournament previews have reinforced this balanced but cautious outlook without shifting implied probabilities dramatically.