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icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Jun 10

Jun 10

2nd hottest 67%

1st hottest 27%

3rd hottest 5.1%

4th or lower 1.0%

Polymarket

$104,835 Vol.

2nd hottest 67%

1st hottest 27%

3rd hottest 5.1%

4th or lower 1.0%

Polymarket

$104,835 Vol.

1st hottest

$11,838 Vol.

27%

2nd hottest

$3,384 Vol.

67%

3rd hottest

$39,537 Vol.

5%

4th or lower

$50,077 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$104,835
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent global warming combined with elevated temperatures through early 2026 has positioned May 1–3 near the top of historical daily records, driving the market-implied 67% probability for second-hottest. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show 2026 on track for the second-warmest year overall, with March and April anomalies already ranking among the highest on record amid a developing El Niño phase that amplifies heat. This background trend, rather than isolated daily extremes, underpins trader consensus while leaving room for first-hottest if recent model runs confirm even stronger anomalies. Official daily global temperature releases from agencies like NOAA will provide the definitive resolution criteria in coming weeks.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$104,835
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "2nd hottest" di 67%, diikuti oleh "1st hottest" di 27%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 67¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 67% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" telah menghasilkan $104.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" adalah "2nd hottest" di 67%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 67% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1st hottest" di 27%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.