Recent inflation data and energy price surges from the Iran conflict have shifted Bank of England policy expectations, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability that the MPC will raise Bank Rate at least once in 2026. With CPI at 3.3% in March 2026—well above the 2% target—and projected to climb further in the second half of the year, the April 30 decision to hold rates at 3.75% included a dissenting vote from Chief Economist Huw Pill favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Forward markets now price in roughly 60 basis points of tightening by year-end, reflecting trader consensus that second-round effects from higher oil costs could outweigh labor-market slack. The June 18 MPC meeting and upcoming CPI releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or moderate this path.