Traders have assigned a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent communications emphasizing data dependence and the absence of material shifts in inflation or employment metrics. Recent core CPI prints and labor market indicators have remained within ranges consistent with the current policy stance, reducing pressure for immediate adjustments. Market pricing in futures and Treasury yields reinforces this view, as participants see limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction absent a clear surprise. Still, the next round of employment and inflation releases before the meeting could alter positioning if readings diverge from consensus estimates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 3.8%
Penurunan 25 bps 3.6%
Penurunan 50+ bps 1.0%
$5,434,325 Vol.
$5,434,325 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
4%
Tidak ada perubahan
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
4%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
<1%
Tidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 3.8%
Penurunan 25 bps 3.6%
Penurunan 50+ bps 1.0%
$5,434,325 Vol.
$5,434,325 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
$521,846 Vol.
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
$406,241 Vol.
4%
Tidak ada perubahan
$639,917 Vol.
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
$3,384,088 Vol.
4%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
$482,238 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders have assigned a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent communications emphasizing data dependence and the absence of material shifts in inflation or employment metrics. Recent core CPI prints and labor market indicators have remained within ranges consistent with the current policy stance, reducing pressure for immediate adjustments. Market pricing in futures and Treasury yields reinforces this view, as participants see limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction absent a clear surprise. Still, the next round of employment and inflation releases before the meeting could alter positioning if readings diverge from consensus estimates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,434,325Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders have assigned a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent communications emphasizing data dependence and the absence of material shifts in inflation or employment metrics. Recent core CPI prints and labor market indicators have remained within ranges consistent with the current policy stance, reducing pressure for immediate adjustments. Market pricing in futures and Treasury yields reinforces this view, as participants see limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction absent a clear surprise. Still, the next round of employment and inflation releases before the meeting could alter positioning if readings diverge from consensus estimates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,434,325Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have assigned a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent communications emphasizing data dependence and the absence of material shifts in inflation or employment metrics. Recent core CPI prints and labor market indicators have remained within ranges consistent with the current policy stance, reducing pressure for immediate adjustments. Market pricing in futures and Treasury yields reinforces this view, as participants see limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction absent a clear surprise. Still, the next round of employment and inflation releases before the meeting could alter positioning if readings diverge from consensus estimates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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