Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$13,675,890 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
31 Mei
7%
30 Juni
13%
31 Desember
34%
$13,675,890 Vol.
31 Mei
$1,991,933 Vol.
7%
30 Juni
$1,089,944 Vol.
13%
31 Desember
$2,398,133 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$13,675,890Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,675,890Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in the 2026 Iran war, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered the constitutional succession process under Article 111. The Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March, though he has remained largely absent from public view since then. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming prominent roles in the Supreme National Security Council. Ongoing diplomatic talks, internal protests, and potential further leadership adjustments amid the conflict continue to shape trader assessments of whether additional change will occur by year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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