Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 leaves him facing elevated inflation readings, including April consumer prices near 3.8 percent and producer prices up sharply, alongside solid employment data that reinforce a cautious FOMC stance. Traders assign the market’s 97.8 percent probability that no rate cut occurs at the June 16-17 meeting to Warsh’s repeated statements that he will follow incoming data rather than external directives, combined with reports of internal committee resistance to immediate easing. Historical patterns of new chairs prioritizing credibility over rapid policy shifts further support this view. A meaningful weakening in labor-market indicators or growth figures released before the meeting remains the clearest path that could still alter the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$17,049 Vol.
$17,049 Vol.
$17,049 Vol.
$17,049 Vol.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 leaves him facing elevated inflation readings, including April consumer prices near 3.8 percent and producer prices up sharply, alongside solid employment data that reinforce a cautious FOMC stance. Traders assign the market’s 97.8 percent probability that no rate cut occurs at the June 16-17 meeting to Warsh’s repeated statements that he will follow incoming data rather than external directives, combined with reports of internal committee resistance to immediate easing. Historical patterns of new chairs prioritizing credibility over rapid policy shifts further support this view. A meaningful weakening in labor-market indicators or growth figures released before the meeting remains the clearest path that could still alter the outcome.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$17,049Pasar Dibuka
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 leaves him facing elevated inflation readings, including April consumer prices near 3.8 percent and producer prices up sharply, alongside solid employment data that reinforce a cautious FOMC stance. Traders assign the market’s 97.8 percent probability that no rate cut occurs at the June 16-17 meeting to Warsh’s repeated statements that he will follow incoming data rather than external directives, combined with reports of internal committee resistance to immediate easing. Historical patterns of new chairs prioritizing credibility over rapid policy shifts further support this view. A meaningful weakening in labor-market indicators or growth figures released before the meeting remains the clearest path that could still alter the outcome.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$17,049Pasar Dibuka
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair on May 13 leaves him facing elevated inflation readings, including April consumer prices near 3.8 percent and producer prices up sharply, alongside solid employment data that reinforce a cautious FOMC stance. Traders assign the market’s 97.8 percent probability that no rate cut occurs at the June 16-17 meeting to Warsh’s repeated statements that he will follow incoming data rather than external directives, combined with reports of internal committee resistance to immediate easing. Historical patterns of new chairs prioritizing credibility over rapid policy shifts further support this view. A meaningful weakening in labor-market indicators or growth figures released before the meeting remains the clearest path that could still alter the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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