Recent reports indicate the Department of Justice is advancing an indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft by Cuban jets, with plans for an unsealing in Miami as early as May 20. This development, tied to the Trump administration’s broader pressure campaign on the island’s government, has shaped trader assessments reflected in the 60.5 percent implied probability for federal charges. Official statements from anonymous Justice Department sources highlight the focus on the Brothers to the Rescue incident, while noting that any formal action would still require grand jury approval and could face diplomatic or legal hurdles. These steps mark the first concrete movement toward prosecution in decades, aligning with heightened tensions in U.S.-Cuba relations.