Russia’s heavy commitment of combat forces to its war in Ukraine continues to constrain any near-term conventional move against a NATO member, even as Moscow repositions assets and conducts hybrid operations along the alliance’s eastern flank. Recent statements from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlight Russian planning for potential operations from Belarusian territory that could target NATO states, while Dutch military intelligence assesses that Moscow could develop regional strike capacity within a year after Ukrainian fighting ends. NATO allies responded with large-scale exercises in Sweden and the Arctic to test rapid reinforcement and hybrid-threat responses, alongside U.S. decisions to adjust troop levels in Germany. These developments, combined with ongoing NATO summit preparations, shape trader assessments of the barriers to a direct invasion in the coming months.